The Wire - July 25, 2024

//The Wire//2030Z July 25, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: RUSSIAN, CHINESE BOMBERS INTERCEPTED IN ALASKA ADIZ. IRAN MAKES MAJOR PROGRESS WITH RAIL LOGISTICS NETWORKS. INDICATORS MOUNT REGARDING POTENTIAL ISRAELI INVASION OF LEBANON.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Western Asia: Iran celebrated the opening of the Rasht-Caspian Railway, a major rail project in Iran’s northern Gilan province. High ranking Russian officials were present at the inauguration event in the Iranian city of Rasht. This project completes one of the major segments of the larger project, the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which is intended to link the Caspian Sea with the Persian Gulf. This event takes place on the heels of another separate (but also significant) rail logistics network becoming operational in the eastern districts of Iran.
Red Sea/HOA: Tensions between Italy and the Houthi-controlled government in Yemen have increased following Israeli airstrikes last week. The Italian Air Force provided aerial refueling for the Israeli aircraft that conducted the strikes in the Yemeni port city of Hudaydah. In response, the Houthis have threatened to target the Italian base in Djibouti if Italy continues to militarily support Israel.
Middle East: Following PM Netanyahu’s address to Congress, rhetoric has shifted to indicate an increasing likelihood of an Israeli invasion of Lebanon. Various Israeli officials overnight increased such rhetoric, along with military officials claiming that military preparations for such an invasion are complete. AC: In this war, rhetoric is nearly meaningless as all sides have frequently made false claims. Israeli politicians call for increasing military operations daily, and various IDF spokespersons have stated that preparations for an invasion are “complete” at least four times over the past few months. Nevertheless, the implications and sentiments expressed during PM Netanyahu’s visit to Congress have led many to theorize that Netanyahu has (in effect) been given the “green light” for such an invasion. This idea will be impossible to confirm with any reliability, however even before Netanyahu’s very specifically timed visit, the U.S. was unlikely to intervene when/if Israel decides to carry out a land-based advance in to Lebanon. On the other side of the wire, Hezbollah is not doing Lebanon any favors, with many missile and rocket strikes being carried out targeting Israeli cities. For the most part Hezbollah has mostly engaged in harassing attacks, with more substantial rocket attacks being triggered in response to particularly egregious Israeli actions in Gaza. However, as tensions remain perched on the knife edge between the conflict simmering down, and expanding greatly, it would not take much for a conflagration to occur in the region (even by accident) which allows Israel more leeway in the international arena to conduct operations in Lebanon.
-HomeFront-
New Jersey: Senator Bob Menendez has resigned from the US Senate (effective Aug. 20) following his bribery convictions. AC: As a reminder, Menendez was convicted of 16 felony counts of bribery for accepting cash and gold payments from Egyptian and Qatari agents, in exchange for services rendered in Congress that benefit the interests of these governments.
Washington D.C. – Cleanup operations following yesterday’s demonstrations/unrest have begun as many monuments, buildings, and other structures were defaced by demonstrators. Criticism of the handling of the unrest has been mounting as very few of the violent demonstrators (specifically those who defaced monuments) were arrested. This morning the US Park Police issued a statement explaining that only 29 officers were designated for crowd control, which prevented any sort of mass arrest operation from being feasible.
California: This morning Governor Newsom signed Executive Order N-1-24, which mandates the immediate dismantling of most homeless encampments throughout the state. This executive order appears to counter many sections of pre-existing city, county, and state code (which has over the years been modified to allow for public vagrancy) to expedite the rapid removal of homeless encampments from public spaces.
Alaska: Yesterday afternoon, NORAD reported the interception of multiple long-range bomber aircraft within Alaska’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Two Russian Tu-95 Bear H, and two PRC H-6K bomber aircraft (with associated escort fighters) conducted a joint presence patrol over the Bering Sea. American and Canadian forces intercepted the bombers and escorted them for some time. None of the bomber aircraft entered into American or Canadian airspace. AC: This event follows Russia’s claim a few days ago of intercepting two American B-52’s conducting an Arctic presence patrol near Russia’s northern border.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: While the presence of Russian aircraft within Alaska’s ADIZ is not uncommon at all, and to be expected in times of domestic strife within the United States, the flight of Chinese bombers is a significant strategic escalation. This is the first time that Chinese long-range bomber aircraft have flown this far, and the first time Russia and China have conducted a joint exercise in Alaska’s ADIZ. This may also be the first time that Russian and Chinese bombers have conducted exercises together. In effect, this was probably China’s attempt at a peacetime “Doolittle’s Raid”, the famous bombing mission by which American bombers conducted a one-way raid on Tokyo following the attack on Pearl Harbor. A mission that was not intended to be militarily significant, but to show the Japanese that the Pacific Ocean was not as large or offered the immunity that they thought it did.
Much like that historic raid, China’s flight probably was intended to serve a similar purpose…to be tactically and strategically negligible, but serve the information warfare purpose of showing that China has far more reach than America thinks. Though the minute details of the logistics of this demonstration will probably be neglected, the range of this patrol alone is significant.
Russian Tu-95’s routinely conduct extremely long range drills off America’s west coast. In fact, several records are currently held by Russian pilots, such as the famous 43-hour, five-ocean flight Russia conducted in 2010. China however, with a military very heavily influenced by Soviet doctrine, has historically not exhibited the capabilities to conduct such global flights, simply due to the platforms that make up the PLAAF.
The Chinese H-6 bombers used during this flight appear to be the standard “K” variant, which is not the variant (Type N) that is capable of air-to-air refueling. This indicates that, depending on flight path and route choice, these aircraft were either approaching their maximum fuel range, or they took off from a forward-deployed location in Russia. As both Russia and China have confirmed the flight route also covered parts of the Chukchi Sea, this is a strong indicator that China forward-deployed their bombers to a Russian airbase before the exercise. Though basic math is the only indicator that this may have taken place (neither Russia, China, nor the US have indicated where the bombers took off from), if China is ironing out the logistical details of forward deploying strategic bombers to Russian airbases in the east, this may warrant even more cause for concern. As a reminder, the PLAAF H-6K variant is believed to be capable of carrying a payload of several DH-10 (NATO code: CJ-10) LACMs, which themselves have an assessed operational range of roughly 2,000km. This means that the Chinese bombers (not considering the Russian aircraft) would still have been well outside the range of being able to strike the mainland USA. Depending on the exact flight route used (which is not public data), Alaska and parts of northern Canada were well within range, and depending on how far south they flew, Hawaii could have also been within the combat range of various munitions (when added to the combat range of the host aircraft). However, if Chinese bombers took off from forward-deployed locations in Russia (probably the Ugolny Airport in Anadyr), in a wartime scenario targets within the Pacific Northwest and the northern half of California would have been within range (assuming that the H-6’s could have survived flying over the entirety of Alaska to conduct the launch, which is dubious at best).
In any case, one or two flights of bombers operating at their maximum range (and well within American/Canadian defense networks) is not an especially grave threat or an indication of an imminent war. On the other hand, the strategic implications of this will undoubtedly raise tensions, even if most people within the Pentagon don’t notice. Keeping in mind that the U.S. conducted a polar flight of B-52s a few days prior, this exercise was not surprising. Nevertheless, Russia and China coordinating militarily to such a degree is cause for more concern, considering the rising tensions around the globe.
In Western Asia, the major rail logistics efforts undertaken by Iran over the past few years are coming to fruition, and will likely pay off in spades for the heavily-sanctioned nation. By investing heavily in rail logistics Iran has not only become more resistant to sanctions, but also vastly increased relations with very powerful allies…Russia and China. Earlier this week, Iran and China inaugurated the China-Iran-Europe rail corridor, linking China with Iran by rail. The operational use of this latest leg of the railway is a major step forward in China’s One-Belt, One-Road initiative to expand China’s logistics capabilities throughout Asia.
Analyst: S2A1
//END REPORT//