The Wire - July 22, 2024

//The Wire//1900Z July 22, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: BIDEN WITHDRAWS FROM RACE. ISRAEL COUNTERATTACKS HOUTHIS IN YEMEN. HEARINGS BEGIN IN CONGRESS ON FAILURES OF USSS.//
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-International Events-
Middle East: Saturday night, Israeli forces counterattacked Houthi positions in Yemen, following the successful Houthi drone strike on Tel Aviv last week. Israeli forces targeted the POL facilities in Hudaydah, along with maritime facilities in the port city. AC: At the moment, it’s not clear as to if this is a tit-for-tat retaliation, or the beginning of a more prolonged campaign. Israel is likely not capable of sustaining extreme-long-range expeditionary operations over a long period of time, but probably can carry out a limited bombing campaign of Yemen for a few weeks. However, with chaos in the White House and the tensions with Lebanon remaining elevated, the confidence that Israel may have had in support from the United States (to carry out such prolonged and expensive operations) is likely not as surefire as in the past.
South Asia: The situation in Bangladesh has deteriorated significantly, despite compromise being made to appease demonstrators. A few days ago the Supreme Court ruled to scale back the controversial civil service hiring quota law, tempering the preferential treatment given to various groups (and veterans of the 1971 war of independence). Nevertheless, demonstrations have continued to grow in size and severity, and a de facto state of martial law has been implemented. AC: So far, details are hard to verify as a nationwide curfew is in effect, with citizens reportedly being allowed to leave their homes for two hours per day to run errands. A nationwide internet blackout was implemented last week, greatly hindering information gathering efforts. What little information has made it out of the country has come via satellite communications.
-HomeFront-
Texas: Friday night, the First Baptist Church of Dallas suffered a catastrophic fire which destroyed the Sanctuary. AC: Due to the structural integrity issues following the fire, investigators have not been able to access some parts of the structure. As such, the cause of the fire has not yet been determined.
Washington D.C. – This morning, Congressional hearings began regarding the conduct of the USSS in the wake of the Trump assassination attempt. AC: Today’s round of testimony has generated far more questions than answers, and has not yet resulted in any useful details coming to light.
Washington D.C. – President Biden has withdrawn from the 2024 Presidential race, and issued an endorsement of Kamala Harris. Harris has not provided any indication of who her running mate will be, and continuing talks indicate that the DNC may move towards an open convention.
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Analyst Comments: Several details remain questionable regarding Biden’s withdrawal from the Presidential race. For instance, his withdrawal letter was not written on official White House letterhead, and Biden’s signature very obviously does not match his handwriting on recent documents. Additionally, no press conference was called to discuss this event, as is typical in such a situation. Biden has also not been visually seen by the public since his withdrawal letter was posted on Twitter/X with no other amplifying information. Several members of Congress have called for Biden to make a public appearance and/or confirm his withdrawal in a video. The White House has not responded to these requests, however various staffers have implied that Biden will make remarks later this week. However, as of right now, Biden’s official schedule has been cleared for this week, with no official events on his calendar.
Despite how these indicators strongly suggest a bloodless coup may have taken place, the other possibility is that the shame and political embarrassment of this event has resulted in a dropping of pretenses regarding official actions. In other words, the staffer who wrote the letter probably didn’t care (or even notice) it wasn’t on official stationery, and Biden (if he did indeed sign it personally, and the signature wasn’t added in digitally) probably also did not care much about it either. With no chance at a future in the White House, Biden has no more motivation to ever be seen by the public again, and probably will spend most of his time at his home in Delaware, while staffers more openly run the day-to-day operations of the State.
What is undeniably concerning is that the American taxpayer cannot be totally certain that this withdrawal was not issued under duress. In fact, most of the information we have strongly supports this theory. Even just a few hours before the letter was dropped on social media with no explanation, Biden’s campaign was urging the public that he was looking forward to accepting the nomination at the DNC.
Whatever the case, the White House has put themselves in a position whereby they can’t easily defend the idea of Biden being unfit, unwilling, or incapable of leading the nation for another four years, but is still somehow qualified to be President at the current moment. Though largely a political idea, this may have larger real-world applications and be a point of concern as events, both foreign and domestic, intensify as the election draws near.
Analyst: S2A1
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