Plot to knobble Starmer already under way?

Right, so is Keir Starmer facing a showdown already? Well it seems he might be and it is over his cruel refusal to lift the two child benefit cap. Seems something is in the offing as a number of Labour MPs look set to join with some opposition parties in a challenge against Starmer’s penny pinching which is keeping 250,000 kids who would be lifted out of poverty with the lifting of this measure, very much in poverty and against a backdrop of investing heavily in defence and a massive military aid package to Ukraine this week, any excuses that we have no money for this, just isn’t washing. But given the size of his majority, can this plot to get this policy overturned work, or are the optics of voting to literally keep kids in poverty going to be too much of a test, not necessarily of Starmer, but of a great many brand new MPs, not wishing to be damaged by this?
Right, so the two child benefit cap debate is happening no matter how many times Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves attempt to slam the door on the matter. Now discussions have been early days on this, the first I got wind of this was a twitter thread by LBC Political Correspondent Agnes Chambre, which reads:
‘There are discussions among opposition MPs about potentially trying to force a vote on the two child benefit cap. One independent MP said they are talking to the SNP about this and a Labour MP suggested there may be movement on this.
One SNP MP said their party is working out if they could put down an amendment and that they’d been approached by an independent MP to see about working together. Another (of the 9) SNP MPs said they want to hold Labour's feet to the fire on issues like this.
The Greens have not been approached by the SNP but they would work with them on this and are considering doing something themselves in the commons and want to use their new MPs to change the policy.
One Labour MP told me many in their party are “raging” and that this MP thought many would vote against if it did come to a vote.
But one cabinet minister said that although people in the party don’t like it but there’s nothing to be done because of the fiscal rules.
I understand there's not been any shift in labours position on this as set out during the election. They did of course announce a child poverty strategy during the campaign.
Labour obviously have a huge majority BUT could this be early sign of the tactics and possible threat by the smaller left parties - band together and try and force division within the labour party with issues that appeal to it's more left wing MPS?’
So could this be the first major test of Starmer’s massive majority and if indeed so many Labour MPs are raging about this, will they rebel already, in a show of force to Starmer’s team, that he might have a big majority, but they aren’t going to tolerate Tory lite cruelty on something that clearly is affordable if the money can be found for other things?
Certainly some Labour MPs have already found their voices on this, though of course they come from the left, what few lefties remain in Starmer’s regime.
Kim Johnson tweeted out as one for instance:
‘I have long campaigned against the two-child benefit cap. This policy is cruel, punitive and is pushing struggling families into further poverty. I am laying an amendment to the King's Speech calling for the cap to scrapped- immediately lifting 250,000 children out of poverty.’
Other’s who have called it out include the likes of Right to Food champion Ian Byrne and Corbyn’s Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, but how many more could add their names to that? It’s an interesting claim that Agnes Chambre made I thought, because on one hand doing away with such a nasty policy is absolutely the sort of thing you’d expect a Labour government to do, unfortunately this Starmer and Reeves led government is a more Tory lite venture than we’ve seen from Labour in some time, far more so than we saw under Gordon Brown I’d argue, definitely more so than Ed Miliband, despite him being part of this government now, we’ve not seen a Labour Party this close to being another blatant Tory Party since the worst excesses of Blair himself and Starmer may just surpass that. Add to that line of thinking the fact that so many who are now Labour MPs were picked because they were Starmer’s sort, imposed wherever to get them into parliament, imposed because they would ostensibly do precisely what they are told and in theory, you’ve no chance of inflicting defeats on Starmer, because he’s rigged things that way. Yet still, there is the possibility that many of these, despite being handpicked as loyalists in waiting, won’t want to be tarred already with having backed something so cruel and punitive and completely out of keeping with what the Labour Party should be about. Of course the opposite could be true as well, they could very much just vote as instructed, but whereas Tory voters might not care largely, right wing viewpoints on this matter usually a case of blaming the parents and why should we pay, missing the point entirely, that it is the child, who is innocent, who didn’t ask to be born, that is punished for it. Labour voters on the whole, think differently, certainly that was my experience when I was a member myself. Labour MPs who act in such a manner and it is all a matter of public record of course, are more likely to be damaged by such conduct than a Tory MP would be. Many Labour MPs who once had massive majorities, now no longer do. Those who won their seats newly this time around, have no track record for defending their seat and if Labour conduct themselves as badly as the Tories have on various policy points, not least something like this, those new majorities may not be worth a lot. So they have a lot to think about between party loyalty and the good of the country and of course there is Starmer’s mantra of country before party, so they can soon toss that in the face of any whips who try and put the hard word down. This would fundamentally be a good test to see which Labour MPs these days do that and which clearly don’t and I’d be happy to name and shame them.
Whilst a significant chunk of Labour MPs would be required to pull this off, there’s no overstating that, and while Kim Johnson is putting an amendment down for the King’s Speech on the 17th on this, the conversation began on the opposition benches. An Independent having a chat with the SNP for one, though that individual is not named, there are 6 to choose from. Now the SNP, despite having been handed a massive defeat at the hands of Labour in Scotland as far as Westminster are concerned, are still in charge at Holyrood and in that capacity, they ameliorate the two child benefit cap already, they’ve stepped up to ensure that kids in Scotland don’t go hungry because they happen to have been third born. Seems logical therefore, they’d vote to end the policy.
I thought it interesting that the Greens had not been approached, but were possibly planning their own move, at least that is what we’re being told, though would support such a move. That much is clear from their manifesto, scrapping the two child benefit cap is something they as a party committed to and would therefore vote accordingly, be it by their own measures or supporting the actions of others in parliament pushing to do likewise.
A Byline Times article out today interviewing Green Co-Leader and new MP for Bristol Central Carla Denyer and Green MP for North Herefordshire Ellie Chowns, reiterates as much:
‘Key areas of focus for the party, Denyer and Chowns said, was stopping new oil and gas projects, like the Rosebank fields, mandating solar panels on new-builds, lifting the two-child benefit cap and addressing river pollution and environmental protection.
The pair also told Byline Times that there’s a possibility of a new left-wing caucus emerging in Parliament, via the Green New Deal Rising group which helped get them elected. Eleven of the left-wing group’s 15 candidates they backed were elected.
While admitting it was “definitely time” for the Conservatives to go, Denyer’s optimism that things would change under Labour was somewhat tempered by how “quickly they’re abandoning policies before even getting into power”.
“I think there’s been a legitimate fear from many voters that if they’re like that in opposition, what would they be like in government?”’
I certainly agree with Denyer there, but then I am biased. Ultimately though, however this reckoning comes about and whatever it manages to achieve it will expose a lot of MPs and will expose Starmer’s Labour as equally as cruel as the Tories, by not just pledging to abolish what is clearly in the interests of the country, in the interests of standing up for the next generation, but by reinforcing that when put to a vote. Now as politically damaging as this might be, it might not even need to succeed. A defeat for Starmer would certainly put a shot across his bows that his supermajority, depending on the issue, is still beatable, but equally the political fallout might prompt a U-turn on it anyway, so the mere act of bringing this issue up and taking it to a vote, might still deliver the desired objective. The money is there to do this with ultimately, it is the choice of Starmer and Reeves, both parents themselves which makes this all the more sickening that they won’t do this already, to not deliver it.
Just to illustrate that point further, here is a video recommendation where I went into the cost of lifting the two child benefit cap, yet Starmer has found enough money to put together a military aid package for Ukraine, again making clear that this is all about choice when it comes down to it and what an appalling choice to have made, not only to contribute to the ongoing war in Ukraine by sending more weapons, but to do so whilst saying our own kids living in poverty here in the UK, must continue to go without at the same time and I’ll hopefully catch you on the next vid. Cheers folks.