Barbados, HURRICANE BERYL Forecasts! Reach Category 2

At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was
located near latitude 9.3 North, longitude 43.6 West. Beryl is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A relatively
quick westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the
next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
move across the Windward Islands late Sunday night and Monday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and Beryl is
expected to become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday, bringing a risk of heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and dangerous storm surge and waves.

Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches will likely be required for portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands early Saturday.

Interests in the central and western Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system. Users are reminded that there is large uncertainty at days 4 and 5 and to not focus on the specific details of the track or intensity forecast.

Since becoming a depression earlier this afternoon (June 28), deep convection has continued to burst with infrared satellite imagery depicting cold cloud tops down to -80°C. The center of circulation remains on the eastern side of the deep convection, but the system is gradually becoming better organized with banding features and better vertical alignment. Intensity estimates have increased this cycle with subjective Dvorak estimates of T2.0/T2.5 from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Objective Dvorak estimates from UW-CIMSS are around 34-36 knots as well. Using a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 40 mph (35 knots), and the depression has strengthened into Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical Storm Beryl is one of only a few #storms in history that have formed over the central or eastern tropical Atlantic this early in the year.

Tropical Storm #Beryl is moving westward at 20 mph (16 knots), steered by a strong subtropical ridge to the north. This should keep #Beryl moving swiftly westward to west-northwestward during the next few days, with the model guidance remains tightly clustered as the system moves towards the #Windward #Islands There is a little more spread in the model guidance beyond day 3, when the system nears a weakness in the subtropical ridge. The #NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids near the middle of the guidance envelope, and is very similar to the previous forecast track. Based on this forecast, the system is expected to move across the Windward Islands #Sunday night and #Monday and track across the eastern and central #Caribbean #Sea through the middle of next week. #Hurricane #hurricanes #winds #windspeed #ocean #weather #TiffanysContent #category2 #cat2
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