Class 11: One Son Born Tuesday & Relevance

Lesson 11: One Son Born Tuesday & Relevance
Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science

Homework: RELEVANCE. A psychic is guessing cards from a standard poker deck of 52 cards. She must guess the exact card, suit & value. When she guesses right, she receives a chocolate. When she is wrong, she gets nothing. In the first 10 cards, she got 4 right and 6 wrong. What is the probability P = "She gets the 11th correct"? The exact number is good if you can get it, but it's much, much more important to explain your reasoning. I mean, what is your Q?

All questions will be answered in the following Monday's lecture.

Written lecture: https://www.wmbriggs.com/post/51979/
https://wmbriggs.substack.com/

Permanent class page: https://www.wmbriggs.com/class/

Uncertainty & Probability Theory: The Logic of Science