There Is No Global “Ticking Time Bomb” in Permafrost Thaw

Experts from AWI have not discovered any evidence of a global climate tipping point related to permafrost; instead, they observe that permafrost soils are thawing in alignment with global warming trends.

Permafrost soils contain substantial amounts of organic carbon and are frequently described as a crucial tipping point in the Earth system, potentially collapsing suddenly and globally once a certain degree of global warming is reached. However, this portrayal of permafrost as a ticking timebomb that activates abruptly at a specific warming threshold is contentious among researchers. A recent study led by the Alfred Wegener Institute reveals that this depiction is misleading, according to the latest scientific evidence.

According to their findings, there is no single global tipping point; rather, there are numerous local and regional ones, which “tip” at different times, producing cumulative effects and causing the permafrost to thaw in step with climate change. As such, taking decisive action today is all the more important if our goal is to preserve as much permafrost as possible. The study was just released in the journal Nature Climate Change.