Forget the polls, Big name Starmer MPs look set to lose their seats!

Right, so the polls are saying Labour are on course for a thumping victory. Depending which on which poll you look at, which you prefer, which do you trust more? Pick your poison, it’s all the same really, but varying between 27 points and 12 points ahead, there’s clearly little agreement, other than Labour are in front, though even that relies on their methodologies and that doesn’t necessarily reflect reality. There are all kinds of factors such polls may not take into account and I’m betting one of those factors is the Muslim vote losses that Starmer has presided over, in no small part, but not exclusively so, his ongoing, apparently immovable position on Israel and Gaza. You see there’s panic going on behind the scenes, where even apparent ultra safe seats that Labour already hold are now, according to their own website, battlegrounds they need help to hold, including some key figures and the common denominator between them all, is the large Muslim population. So how much damage has Keir Starmer done to Labour’s Muslim vote and is it actually fair to consider just them, when so many others are just as disgusted by Keir Starmer and his Zionist politics?
Right, so Labour are so nailed on to win the next General Election, that they are now advertising on their own website that they need help in certain seats that they already hold, and the common denominator is that all of these constituencies have significant Muslim populations, though Labour aren’t admitting to that little nugget of information, that has come courtesy, ironically, of a LabourList investigation, which despite the name is not connected to the Labour Party – they typically do support them – but are actually a news website completely separate and this article is certainly doing Labour no favours and clearly the loss of the Muslim vote Labour typically enjoys a significant chunk of in this country, which some months was reported to have fallen by half, in no small part due to Keir Starmer and his pro Zionist stance, ongoing, concerning Israel and Gaza, looks like it has probably fallen even further since.
So I popped onto the Labour Party website to see for myself, currently the homepage of a horrible gurning image of Keir Starmer holding a baby, with the word change underneath, and I’m sat there thinking him or the baby, both are capable of creating an horrendous bad smell, but if you scroll down a bit, there’s a link saying I want to help and if you click on that you can put your postcode in and see where the nearest battleground seat is, so you can do exactly what LabourList has done, it will basically tell you where you could the most difference if you were so inclined and I’m definitely not.
But equally you may well get a result, not so much pointing you towards a Tory held seat that Labour has a shot at overturning as I did down here in Cornwall, you might instead get a message popping up, saying ‘we need your help to hold this seat for Labour.’
Well hang on a minute, YouGov have just told me that you’re a sure thing, you’re going to have a 300 seat majority or some such, how come the Labour Party’s own website is saying they are struggling to hold onto some of their own seats? And these aren’t necessarily marginals either, some are considered ultra safe seats, which tells me, on the face of it, that we could see not dissimilar results come the General Election that we’ve seen certainly in the last two local elections, where Labour have made only small gains over all, or stood still in fact, because as much as they gained council seats in some areas, they lost them in others. As much as Labour might gain MPs in some areas at the expense of the Tories, they could lose MPs elsewhere and there are some big names amongst Labour frontbenchers, who appear to be in danger now, if this help us hold our seats message is anything to go by.
Through their investigation, LabourList identified 16 seats, where this message is being displayed and discovered that the factor that relates all of them, is large Muslim populations, here’s an example, Jess Phillips in trouble, oh dear how sad, never mind. Jody McIntyre I hope is the young chap giving her grief electorally, do check my video on him, he’d make a far better MP.
But Phillips isn’t the only big name on the list in trouble. Jonathan Ashworth up in Leicester South, the current Shadow Paymaster General has a majority of 22,675, this is an ultra safe Labour seat, yet he is apparently in danger of losing it. A third of the population of Leicester South are Muslim, yet notably, they wouldn’t in themselves be sufficient, to overturn Ashworth’s majority, so as much as LabourList have identified a common denominator in the Muslim vote, it is unfair, to point the finger of blame for these potential seat losses if they come to pass at Muslim voters alone, because so many of the rest of us are equally disgusted. I’d caution against scapegoating here, if Starmer’s Labour weren’t disgusting so many over his Israel and Gaza stance, we wouldn’t be having this conversation and this video wouldn’t have been made after all and in fact I’d point to a Muslim rival of Ashworth as the person to look at by way of a vote recommendation, and consider voting instead for the Green Party’s Sharmen Rahman.
Other big names in danger here according to the Labour website are Shabana Mahmood in Birmingham Ladywood, another Birmingham MP like Jess Phillips, the Shadow Justice Secretary and the MP who seconded Jeremy Corbyn’s antidemocratic blocking from being able to put himself forward as a Labour MP. Her majority is even bigger than Ashworth’s, 28,582, however 43% of her constituents identify as Muslim. She’s being challenged by an excellent Independent called Akhmed Yakoob, who ran unsuccessfully for West Midlands mayor, but who still managed to get 20% of the vote.
Rushanara Ali, the Shadow Investment & Small Business Minister in Bethnal Green and Bow, will be standing for Bethnal Green and Steney next due to boundary changes, a huge majority, 37,524, yet she is also apparently in trouble and again a large Muslim population stands out, nearly 42%. She’s getting challenged prominently by local human rights lawyer Tasnime Akunjee, so best of luck to him there.
Now, we could look at all of this and say, well perhaps Labour are just trying to get people out campaigning, and that is why they are sending messages out, boost support for Starmer close allies despite large majorities. We also keep getting told that local election results are not a good indicator of General Election voting intention, but much like the polls that you mike like to cite as clear support for your chosen side, or even if you’re not taking a side, read as a sign of the inevitable, an argument that makes think, well if you believe that, you should free to vote for who like and ignore calls for tactical voting in which case, it is the trend across multiple polls over time that actually is the most informative aspect to them, we haven’t had many so far since the election was called to do that, but we do have those local election results to look at and trends can be spotted there too, as much as in and of themselves they may not correlate well.
For example, whilst Labour ostensibly did well last month in the local elections, they did only secure two-fifths of the lost Tory vote, losing it to the Lib Dems, Green Party and Independents, so they came up short of expectation and analysis done by Sky on those results makes for some interesting reading as well.
You see while they freely admit Labour did well, they didn’t do well uniformly and when it came to looking at areas with large Muslim populations, Labour actually saw a uniform 17.9% drop across such areas. Now I don’t know how widely Sky looked at that, more widely I would imagine than LabourList have, they have more resources, much bigger organisation and I would also suggest if Labour were thinking they are in trouble, as seems to be the case, they are expecting bigger losses in some seats than 17.9%. Ultra safe seats like the three I mentioned before, wouldn’t be troubled by numbers like that I wouldn’t have thought.
In fact we can point to an example of this that has already happened. LabourList looked at the 20 most populous Muslim areas of the country and of those, 13 Labour constituency Labour seats are now listed as battlegrounds. But another constituency that falls into this category is Rochdale, which George Galloway took with a thumping majority and where Labour, who held the seat, came fourth. Even allowing for the scandal that ensued over that candidate, that was a catastrophic loss, with an Independent coming second, proving Independent candidates can make a difference and there’s plenty of them springing up nationwide, and the Tories third. Are Labour expecting to ‘Rochdaled’, or ‘Gallowayed’ in a number of other seats with big Muslim populations?
LabourList went further looking at this Muslim voter factor and took the 20 safest Labour seats in the country, and discovered three of them are now considered battlegrounds, all have big Muslim populations.
And as if to emphasise this point further, Labour NEC rep Mish Rahman, said in response to these findings that:
‘Mish Rahman, a member of Labour’s national executive committee on the left of the party, said: “For far too long, Labour has taken some of these communities for granted and continues to do so as we have seen from the party’s behaviour towards Diane Abbott and Faiza Shaheen.
“Whenever a candidate is interviewed by the NEC for due diligence, they are asked to explain how any of their actions will be judged by the electorate, but the irony is that Keir Starmer’s actions following his awful LBC interview have done unprecedented damage to Labour’s chances in some of its safest seats in the country.
“Labour has lost hundreds of councillors and a number of councils because of those actions, and now risk some of our safest seats. It’s tragic that this was completely avoidable and is totally self-inflicted.”’
He’s right, but what will change under Starmer? Not his attitude towards Israel and as Mish Rahman drew attention to again, that LBC interview, where Starmer said Israel has the right to commit war crimes, that he denies ever saying, that he still won’t apologise for, is doing massive amounts of damage.
Yet despite all of this, and as the treatment of Diane Abbott, now allowed to stand after Starmer and Co finally backed down, but also over Faiza Shaheen, shows Labour on one hand consider this election in the bag, but on another, are bricking it because they’re losing ground in their heartlands. The trend of local elections does appear set to be repeated, Labour might largely do well, but not as well as they should and that could deny them a majority and the hung parliament we need for electoral reform could be within our grasp. It’s all on Starmer, he deserves nothing less, certainly not a majority and as his treatment of Faiza Shaheen shows, detailed in this video recommendation here, karma is long overdue for this shambolic bunch of red tories and I’ll hopefully catch you on the next vid. Cheers folks.