The Wire - May 21, 2024

//The Wire//1700Z May 21, 2024//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ICC CONSIDERS ARREST WARRANTS FOR ISRAELI AND HAMAS OFFICIALS. DETAILS OF IRANIAN HELO CRASH REMAIN CONTRADICTORY.//
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-International Events-
Iran: Details continue to become contradictory following the helicopter crash that killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. New Iranian press statements have indicated that at least two other helicopters were involved in the incident to some degree…the collection of VIPs were not traveling in one lone helicopter as initially claimed by Iranian media (and some western sources). However, it is not clear as to if these helicopters were flying as an assembled flight, or if there was some separation of time between each of the aircraft’s transit south through the valley to Tabriz.
The Hague: The lead prosecutor for the International Criminal Court (ICC) has recommended the issuance of arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Netanhayu and Defense Minister Gallant, as well as Hamas commander in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar. The ICC will now hear evidence to determine if arrest warrants shall be issued.
Singapore: One passenger was killed, and many others injured during an extreme turbulence event on a routine flight between London and Singapore. Singapore Airlines Flight SQ321 experienced substantial turbulence as the long-haul flight neared the coast of Thailand. Following the extreme turbulence, the aircraft made an emergency landing in Thailand. AC: As the turbulence occurred unexpectedly, little warning was given to passengers, causing at least 30 passengers to suffer varying injuries to include a few cases of severe blunt force trauma. This incident did result in one fatality, but it is not clear as to if this occurred as a direct result of trauma due to the kinetic turbulence, or due to an underlying medical issue. The deceased passenger has not yet been identified by the airline.
New Caledonia: Australia and New Zealand have reportedly begun repatriation flights for their citizens located on the former French Colony. Violence continues as France deploys increasing numbers of forces to the region to maintain order.
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Overnight, Congolese forces allegedly halted a coup attempt, arresting possibly two Americans who allegedly planned to support and coordinate the efforts of a local guerrilla group. AC: So far, it’s too soon to tell if this is a legitimate coup attempt, or something else entirely. Two people are unlikely to overthrow anyone singlehandedly, but this would also not be the first time that a spy got caught engaging in espionage. Nor would it be out of the question for the local warlords of the DRC to grab a westerner and fabricate a story to consolidate power. As there are far too many variables and far too few reliable information sources in the region, the truth of this incident is unlikely to come forth for the time being.
-HomeFront-
South Carolina: The South Carolina Port Authority has announced that yesterday’s software issue has been resolved, and all terminals are resuming operations. No further details have been provided as to the specific cause of this outage.
Washington D.C. – H.R. 8445 has been introduced in Congress. This bill would amend U.S. Title 38 and the Servicemembers Civil Relief Act to expand eligibility of all military servicemember benefits to any American citizen serving in the Israeli Defense Forces. Per the text of the bill as provided by the bill’s sponsor, “the service of a citizen of the United States in the Israeli Defense Forces shall be treated in the same manner as service in the uniformed services.”. AC: This appears to be the first and only time (at least in U.S. history) whereby a nation is considering granting military servicemember benefits to those in the military service of a foreign nation. As such, it’s not certain how this situation will develop or if other factors such as the United States Uniform Code of Military Justice, Law of Armed Conflict, Rules of Engagement, or other legalities will apply to these select IDF soldiers as well.
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Analyst Comments: As the discrepancies with the official Iranian helicopter crash story begin to mount, it is important to consider the commonality of the events that took place to result in this disaster. On the one hand, Iranian officials revealing that two additional aircraft were involved makes sense…but prompts the question of how the only aircraft with the President onboard could be the one that crashed, and the other two aircraft had no idea anything happened at all, as insinuated by Iranian media. Putting together the timeline of events is challenging, and results in any number of scenarios or theories as to how this incident could have occurred. It’s possible for one aircraft out of three to become separated from the others. It’s also possible for the other two aircraft to have departed several minutes before or after the President’s helicopter, those crucial minutes resulting in tragedy. Though completely speculative considering the lack of data available, it also wouldn’t be unheard of for a VIP to delay a departure, personally urging the other two aircraft (also carrying VIPs) to head back with the intent of catching up en route. Alternatively, the President could have been late for another meeting and flew ahead of the other two, with disastrous results. It is also possible that extreme weather conditions restricted visibility to the point that the formation broke up, with each pilot managing their own aircraft out of the valley. This is not entirely uncommon, but also causes additional questions to arise, such as how or why the two additional aircraft did not hear any radio distress calls or note any transponder data.
Nonetheless, considering all factors (none of which are completely definitive by any means) the oddity of losing the most important aircraft in a formation of three does increase the likelihood of either nefarious action or a more serious (and embarrassing for Iran) accident. As with most aviation incidents, the nuts and bolts of how tragedy strikes is a long chain of causation, with sometimes hundreds of events lining up perfectly for a disaster to occur. Considering the current international tensions, either a consolidation of power, foreign assassination, mechanical failure, sheer ignorance, incompetence, or bad luck…any one of these theories likely means the same for Iran’s future. More tension via the inevitable election season woes along with tamping down international embarrassment, and Iran always trying to save face in the international arena. Whatever the cause of this accident, most nations around the world seem to implicitly blame either the United States or Israel for the crash. If this accident was indeed purely an accident, the diplomatic complexities of Iran trying to save face in the wake of ‘the attack than never was’ probably will cause domestic problems for the Ayatollah as well.
Regarding the recent activities at the Hague, the recent events involving potential arrest warrants probably don’t mean much at all in the long run. However, the second order effects and responses to this development are worthy of note. As a reminder, 12 Republican Senators singed a letter directed to the ICC’s lead prosecutor on April 24th. This letter contained openly threatening language, stating “If you issue a warrant for the arrest of the Israeli leadership, we will interpret this not only as a threat to Israel’s sovereignty, but to the sovereignty of the United States.”. The letter also contained threatening language towards the prosecutor personally, to include his family, stating “Target Israel and we will target you. If you move forward with the measures indicated in the report, we will move to end all American support for the ICC, sanction your employees and associates, and bar you and your families from the United States. You have been warned”.
Language such as this is not only openly threatening, but also contradictory. Currently, the charges brought forth to achieve arrest warrants are not with regards to Israeli kinetic targeting practices, but those regarding the deliberate starvation of the Palestinian population in Gaza. Israel has openly admitted to deliberately withholding international food aid, and the United States building a naval logistics hub and continuing to airdrop food is a de facto admission to this deliberate starvation as well. Perhaps most importantly, it is unclear as to how the ICC potentially investigating Israel has any bearing on the national sovereignty of the United States as directly stated in the letter. This minor footnote may be a tacit admission of a reality that the American people are not yet ready to rationalize.
Analyst: S2A1
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