Clif High - Kondratiev's Revenge - Thanks for playing our game!

Hello humans!
Hello humans.
February 28th.
It's a little after 8 in the morning.
I'm running a little tiny bit late.
I've got to get my ass into town and I've got a couple of appointments I've got to get to.
One will take about an hour and then I can do some semi-regular shopping and then go meet with these other guys and discuss a few things and then
Head Back Outbound.
Anyway, so all kinds of things to talk about here.
Let me get my stuff settled.
So Bitcoin's up to over 60,000 this morning.
The projections on that are pretty clear at this point.
As I had said, we're into
The period of the crack-up boom.
This is the Kondratiev understanding of how fiat currency systems end.
It's not capitalism dying, it's the fiat currency central bank global reserve thing that's dying, right?
Capitalism is the only effective natural economic system.
Socialism, communism,
all of these kind of things are artifacts are ideologies that are laid over the economics and they they don't really work and they always crap out and they always crap out violently because of the nature of the hatred that is inbuilt into socialism and communism these are our hateful ideologies that have
Kondratiev's Revenge
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It's not going to be all commodities because some things like real estate are not necessarily going to participate.
It's an interesting time.
So I'm actually expecting as Bitcoin prices rise, continue to rise, as gold and silver keep banging against that wall of suppression, I'm expecting further degradation in the real estate market to the point that we'll actually have
mainstream media having to comment on the collapse of real estate it's already started with the commercial real estate and so the commercial real estate market in the US basically has collapsed and it is not going to recover anytime soon and it's very likely not ever going to recover under a Federal Reserve note petrodollar
So that's what's dying.
Okay.
The petrodollar that backs all the other fiat currencies is dying.
The European Union thinks that they can keep their, the European Central Bank thinks they can keep their aggregate Euro currency going and it's already dying.
And they're just scrambling like mad to try and keep it together against the
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and how they started changing and doing their social engineering then.
Because that was anti-organic kind of mood, I guess you'd say.
So the popular mood after World War II was everybody go home and lick their wounds, tighten up, clean up, all of this kind of stuff.
Instead, the globalists push and push and push to get this, quote, democratization of Europe, which means,
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we're very close to that in the dollar once we get a new all-time high over 63,000 in Bitcoin in the dollar then it will really rush up the projections are by a lot of people that are doing charting this kind of shit the projections are that this will the bitcoins going to scale up fairly rapidly
as we approach the halving which is estimated to be April 19th now you know based on it's based on how much many transactions really how many transactions are in the blockchain and so the projection is April 19th as we go through there the projections are that the Bitcoin price will exceed
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And so Bitcoin might drop back down into the upper 90s, right?
Okay, so what are these guys doing here?
Hang on, I've got some squeeze driving to do between buses and weird-ass contractor guys.
Okay.
So Bitcoin goes up to the $120,000, drops down into the upper 90s, makes a floor into the upper 90s, and then pushes through that floor and beyond the rest of this year as the fiat currencies continue their degradation and the social chaos that was engineered and built into the cake now by the actions of the mother weppers.
So there will be contention with all of the invaders.
They're here.
We've got to deal with them.
There won't be an easy resolution.
They're not going to become nice and peaceful USA or European citizens.
Their intent is to invade and take over and cause problems.
So this will occur.
That's going to further cause degradations within the economic system because you can't have activity as normal when you're in the process of being invaded and fighting off an invading force.
This is going to be, the rest of this year we'll be going through this.
The economic aspect of it, the actual production of goods and services and all of that kind of stuff is going to take a hit as well.
This will also affect the underpinnings of the ability to satisfy debt in the fiat currencies, because that's all they are.
They're just a mechanism for dealing with debt.
They're not really money per se.
They're a debt that you take on when you use their currencies.
So this will continue to degrade and will even accelerate as we go through the year.
So it might be very feasible that we have a solid floor in Bitcoin around $100,000 by the time we get to Christmas.
Thus, we have the
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And so this is the action within fiat currency worlds relative to the fiat currency is the sudden rise, the boom, then the retraction, the pullback, and then consolidation and flooring, and then another rise.
Now, the expectation is just doing projections off of charts and stuff.
So I don't have any data, but these chartists, I'm just looking at their stuff.
And the projection is that in 2025 we'll see Bitcoin over a million dollars each.
And this will be the end, truly the end of the petrodollar as we get into those kind of numbers.
It just won't be worth even messing with as a debt settling instrument.
So Bitcoin will be huge.
BTC will be hugely
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As a relatively non-traceable settlement vehicle, it'll have a lot of demand.
Beyond that, there are going to be other alt cryptos that survive for various different reasons.
But at this point, it's sort of a crapshoot betting on any individual technology unless you've really gone into those technologies.
and really examine them and understand where the utility is and why they will survive this period of time.
The period of time we're coming into is going to force everybody back to solid money, to realistic valuations on stuff as the petrodollar dies and then all of the other fiat currencies that are attached to it.
They're all dying now, right?
So we're seeing that now.
Bitcoin is making all-time highs in a number of different currencies, including in
Japanese right so Japanese currency is very stable usually and for it to be making these kind of big new all-time highs in Bitcoin for Bitcoin in yen is is really a very telling issue so we're just here now and so there's going to be this is the wealth transfer period where those people that were hodlers and
and got into the idea of digital scarcity and and settlement vehicles versus hard currency and so on are going to benefit for that attention to the currency and all things economic and they're going to benefit for their acumen in for their courage in acting against the general trend and herd right so Bitcoin people
very likely the hodlers none of those people took the shot because it's the same kind of maybe some of the you know money and manager guy kind of guys did but mostly the the individual Bitcoin errs I bet you they didn't take any of the of the clock shots because it's the same kind of process that allows you to be courageous and make a move early and ahead and against the existing trends that will
Propel you into this intergenerational wealth stuff, right?
Same thing with silver.
Buying silver way the hell back when, when it was, you know, $8, you know, $8 an ounce for junk silver means you were that prescient, that much ahead.
And so those are the people that are being rewarded now by the activity within the degradation of the
Fiat Currency and the Wealth Transfer aspect of it.
Remember, wealth does not go away.
It doesn't disappear unless you bury it in the ground and die, and thus no one knows it's there.
So that's really the only way that this kind of stuff goes away.
You know, you always lose a little bit here and there, but in general, wealth sticks around.
It just transfers from one form to another as you go through into the future here.
and we're in one of those transitional periods now this is going to be relatively exciting for people you'll have all kinds of people getting whipped up all-time highs in in dollars for Bitcoin are always something that everybody gets excited about also this time it's going to be coincident with all kinds of crapola going on in the general
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in that sense, in the Chartist sense, but it is a key peg at 75,000 for a Bitcoin because that was in the data sets way back when as a minor temporal marker.
There's another very large temporal marker, which is 88,000, right?
And so Bitcoin had this thing back in the day, way back when,
When the data set said that it would rise up to $880 and then it would fall back and then it would do this three times and then it was never ever ever going to go back down below $880.
We have that same kind of language for $88,000.
Okay, so it'll go through $88,000 and then it will set a floor in the range of $88,000.
Maybe it'll come down to $84,000 and then go back up to $88,000 and then come back down and then go back up.
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it's not Bitcoin that's becoming more valuable well it is in a sense because value is an emotional attachment to an idea you know like Bitcoin or gold or silver or whatever it's an emotional thing so but but after the having is when I suspect that we'll start going through some of these very key temporal markers relative to fern to Bitcoin prices and that those will also be commensurate with
all of the activity that's that's ongoing through this period of time so in March we're gonna have lots and lots and lots of violent activity new stuff happening this will include reactions within the currency and economic situation relative to so basically what's going to happen is that there will actually be reactions within the
the social order about the pricing and so forth in ferns of various different kinds of commodities and these things will have shock they'll initiate shocks within the social order so it's going to be a huge shock when silver breaks out of its its value range that it's being constrained in
this will happen because of some breakdowns that will occur within the quote exchange system which is really a control mechanism and so the Bitcoin and its fern price also it's you know price in kroner or whatever the hell right all these other currencies it'll be making new highs in all these global currencies as we get to the point where that triggers a
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Silver should have busted out to where it's broken through $50, $80, $100 an ounce.
So we have language now in the minimalist little bit of scraping I can do.
So let me, let me emphasize that I do not have the hundreds of millions of reads that I used to in my processing because of the situation, the costs and so on that are involved in that at this day and age, as well as the bandwidth.
I just don't have that here.
I had a complete I had one-third of a T1 line so vast quantities of bandwidth at my old office before we moved.
Now out here on the coast I just have to deal with the best bandwidth you can get on a residential line.
I had had a special line run in to me from the phone company at a huge cost
back in Olympia at our other address I think it was done in when we do maybe that was 2002 I did that it was fantastically huge cost it costs like $1,600 to run that line we had to you know drive it under the road and
Kondratiev's Revenge
I have a bunch of stops so I got to do all these little chores as well as these couple of meetings I'm gonna try and squeeze in a little chore before I get into that first meeting shorten some of the duration we've got our sick dog and my wife is just not really um health-wise just up to dealing with all kinds of stuff so I want to try and get back as soon as I can anyway though
So I expect that we'll have kinetic activity in March.
We'll have frenetic, freak-out kind of economic activity in April.
We're going to have all kinds of information that comes out as a result of this, simply because as the dollar degrades, there's less ability to pay people to keep their mouths shut.
That's fundamentally what it amounts to, right?
The whole system is breaking down.
because the the dollar is breaking down because the Federal Reserve note is breaking down to the point where it has no purchasing value and people have no confidence in it so they're going to act differently and they already are we're seeing the effects of that all over so I personally think this is a very exciting time you know I have some Bitcoin I have a few of those guys so so I'm interested in
I'm following along with it.
However, my real problem is I'm feeling so Soviet.
I feel like I'm back in the USSR.
In my day, in the 60s and 70s and 80s, there was a joke that in the Soviet Union you worked your ass off and you made good money, but there was nothing to buy.
and and so that was it if you saw a line on a street corner near any kind of a store you went got in that line because it meant there was something in that store to buy and everybody had money because there was nothing to buy with the money uh so it's just a weird situation so for me it's kind of like that so i was lamenting the other day about how soviet i feel because i can't find a single story house right
I mean, I can find them that are six and seven hours away, but that's just not feasible.
We're just not going to be able to do that.
It has to meet certain criterias anyway.
you know relative to like wheelchair access and that sort of thing you know the number of bedrooms you know if it's a single-story house no problem but but any event so I can't find one so I'm feeling very Soviet right like if I if I saw a big line in front of a real estate agency I'd go and get there but any event though so here's the thing about real estate because I got to wrap this up fairly quick
Commercial real estate has collapsed.
The amount of bad debt associated with commercial real estate right now, that they know that debt is bad, that is that people are behind on payments on commercial real estate, they're not making their mortgage on time or barely making it on time, whereas before they would pay it early, that kind of thing.
All of these indicators are showing that commercial real estate has just totally crapped out.
The extent of the commercial real estate that has already crapped out means that the entire banking system in the United States, as well as most of the banking system in Europe, cannot come up with reserves to cover the losses.
And this is not the complete collapse yet of the commercial real estate market, meaning that
we're looking at a breakdown of commercial real estate at a level that is has not ever been seen before in our modern society and if we look at and there is no analog for it in previous times it just it's at that level so just absolutely staggering the
The complete involvement of this.
So if we were to take basically all commercial real estate, then the amount of loss reserves the banks would have to have is about 18 times what they've got set aside.
18 times.
So they've only got 1 18th of the loss reserves necessary
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financial freedom to do this at this time and they they're looking at commercial real estate because there's not much in the way of residential real estate being sold or offered even because even if you were to even if you wanted to sell your house there's no house for you to buy and the minute you sell your house and convert that house into dollars the dollars start depreciating like right the fuck away and so you're you're running up against a
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the level of debt that has to be satisfied in the sale so I know some houses now where they I don't know if people are going to try and flip them or what the deal is that whole quote industry is really tanked but I know a couple of houses where the owners are
Basically wrestling to see if they're going to accept offers that are below assessed value.
So this is that point of time where we reconvert
Wealth and taxes and so on.
So all these counties are freaking out because houses aren't selling.
They get some money in the process of the house sale, but also it sets a new base for them relative to land taxes.
And those are dropping because the sales price is less than the county's already assessed value.
They can't have that legally.
They have to adjust it downward to the actual sales price.
And this is the same mechanism that destroyed the
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you know counties don't like it there's nothing they can do about it but this is the state of affairs at the moment so real estate's not necessarily going to be a good investment especially for short-term kind of stuff so I just want a new house I'm not looking at an investment I just want to get away from all of the noise and the crap of adding this and rebuilding the house I'm in you know I really have to the the contractor really
I've got some serious issues with that house that I'm wrestling with so I just want to get another house to go and live in while all this is going on I'm not after any kind of long-term gain and stuff if I were I would still be looking into commercial real estate because this stuff is so hugely undervalued and you're finding if you look you can find places where it's been
Where the value of the property to you is such that if you make an offer that can be used as leverage with the banks to get people out from under the debt, they will do so.
So I know of one place where an old restaurant was sold to a guy and he's converting it into a house.
And when he bought that, it had been on the market for, geez,
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and so that was not enough to satisfy the debt on this property that just sat there but the bank it had been in arrears for a number of years the guy making some level of payments just enough to keep it going and the guy went with the offer back to the bank and said what can we do and they said okay you know we'll go with you on this amount we'll forgive this amount of the debt if you accept
Kondratiev's Revenge
Anyway, so that's the state of affairs here.
I'm still sort of looking for a house.
I'm in the process of getting the next phase of my addition going here.
So we're going to have the engineering and the plans.
I'll submit those.
I don't really give a rat's ass about the county's opinion of stuff, but I'm going to do it just to be legal.
um if they slow me down then we'll go into an illegal state where I'll just say yeah piss on it I don't give a shit we're doing it but in any event so the next thing is to get the heat pump moved and the well the next thing is to get some more lumber or logs out of the place and a couple of large stumps removed and then to get the heat pump moved and the
A foundation started.
Now, the good news for me at a personal level is that there's a lot of crews available, starting to become available because work is drying up.
Not that many people are out here building houses and stuff.
So those new housing starts are way down all over, which means that there's more crews for remodels and things.
You know, not a good thing economically, but at least I'll be able to keep a couple of people employed.
with their crews here as we go forward for you know at least a brief bit of time so they'll get some money this year that's just the situation that we've got anyway like I say bitcoins probably going to retreat after it gets up to about 118 to 120 thousand something in there and then that retracement will be the floor of
so it goes from 120 down to in upper 90s is my thinking and then after that that's the floor for it and we go back up into the over a hundred thousand by Christmas of this year and that's our floor for 2025 and then we rush on in to
the millions is the fiat currency totally breaks down okay so a little early but I'll get it in this even get get in early on this alright guys so I'll do another one of these on the way out there's so much to talk about yep so anyway have fun fun days