Avdiivka: Winter Has Come

Toward the end of 2023, while Western and Ukrainian media were flush with articles hyping up Russian casualties in their attack on Avdiivka, US Admiral John Kirby warned that they had not seen the main Russian attack for the City yet and predicted that the main thrust will occur toward the end of January or February 2024. It seems he was right as Russian forces, after a temporary lull during which troops were rotated, launched a renewed offensive and was able to break a major defence line of the Ukrainians in South Avdiivka capturing a strategic air base. With this capture, the Ukraine supply lines are in danger as Russian forces are within 3km at certain points. Much of this recent breakthrough is due to Ukraine's mounting manpower, but more so, ammunition shortages. In fact, this ammunition shortage is pervasive across the entire front line for Ukrainians such that we can see further collapses shortly. Colonel General Srysky of the Ukrainian armed forces wants that Ukraine may have to pull out of Avdiivka soon if no new western aid arrives. In that regard, Congress still hasn't approved the USD 60 billion aid package the Biden Administration has asked for since the end of last year. At this rate, Ukraine may be defeated in 2024.