Matthew Dowd: I Don’t Care What DeSantis Says, the Race Is Over for Him if He Finishes Third in Iowa

DIAZ-BALART: “Matthew, what are you going to be looking for?”
DOWD: “Well, I’m looking at Donald Trump’s margin. I mean, just keep in mind a couple of things. The largest margin of ever a non incumbent Republican in Iowa was 13 points. Donald Trump looks like he’s going to double that, probably in that. That’s an amazing figure. The other thing also to keep in mind if Donald Trump wins Iowa, and it goes on, which is likely in the margin he is, he — and then wins the nomination, there’s only been three key presidential candidates in the history of the United States of America to win their nomination three — three times, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, Richard Nixon, and Donald Trump in this. So to me, the most important thing to me is how big that margin is, because if that margin is bigger than 20 points, it’s very hard for anybody to catch up at that point going forward.”
DIAZ-BALART: “What does Ron DeSantis have to look forward to after Iowa? I mean, he has put a lot of work and a lot of resources into Iowa. He’s been to the 99 counties. What is his way forward, Matthew?”
DOWD: “A vacation in Florida, it’s probably what it looks like to me. I mean, Ron DeSantis has spent about $200 million and is only drifted down in the polls from — since the time he got in until the time today. And that is especially true of Iowa, where he has put all his chips on the table and tried. Right now — he initially wanted to fight for first place, now he’s fighting for second place. And I agree if he finishes in third place, I don’t care what he told Hallie Jackson, the race is over for him all but over. So to me right now, if he doesn’t do what he’s supposed to do in Iowa, at least finish second in the — in — in the course of this, he’s looking for warm time in the sun in Florida.”