russia Is on a Risky Offensive. Will It Backfire?

Original creator: William Spaniel
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9XFkn1sPME

Original description:
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Russia is currently on a major offensive targeting Avdiivka, a small Ukrainian city that has managed to hold on despite being on the frontlines for a decade. That Russia is interested in taking Avdiivka is not surprising. What is confusing is the timing. Russia has a presidential election in March. Given the apparent domestic status quo, the election is unlikely to threaten Putin's tenure. But a major failure in Avdiivka might cause that to change. This video offers some explanations for what may be going on here.

00:00 Russia's New Offensive
02:16 Elections in Autocracies
04:04 The Timing of the Offensive
08:47 It's a Mistake
10:32 The Kremlin's Strong Position
11:34 The Kremlin's Weak Position
14:38 Trial Run
17:42 Window of Opportunity
19:06 Which Explanation Is Right?