The Economic Indicator Screaming That Inflation Is Not Vanquished

One economic indicator is signaling inflation is not at all conquered and that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is still far too loose. The statistic in question is nominal gross domestic product, or NGDP, growth — that is, the growth of economic output before adjusting for inflation. It stands in contrast to a range of other signs inflation is receding: The inflation rate is falling, inflation expectations are dropping, wage growth is moderating, job openings are declining, and investors now expect that the Fed’s next move will be to cut its interest rate target. In the third quarter, NGDP surged, growing at nearly a 9% annualized rate — the fastest growth in 20 years, setting aside the massive numbers posted during the reopening from the pandemic.

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