5 months ago

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News #ukraine #ukrainewar #odessa #russia

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Odessa is next
#odessa #ukrainewar #ukrainewarnews #ukrainerussiawar #ukrainenews
Ochakov coming under attack - heavy artillery, MLRS, Kamakaze UAV - 20-70 km
60 E Odessa, 50 W Nikolaiev, 80 W Kherson
Guards access to mouth of the Dnieper Dniprovska Gulf Pivdennyi Buh River - access to Nikolaiev
Reportedly NATO/UK troops operate naval drones and coordinate landings across the Dnieper from Ochakov
Closest southern land point to the LEFT BANK of Dnieper
Attacks will draw reinforcements from Odessa and Mikolaiev - which will indicate positions, HQ, ammo dumps - this is preparation for Russian assault to cross the Dnieper - to assume control of the coast from Ochakov to the Danube river on the border with Romania
Port of Chornomorsk is located in Ukraine at 46.3174N, 30.6876E.
Vesselfinder - shipping tracking - No vessels have arrived within the past 24 hours and 1 ship is expected to arrive in the next 30 days.

No shipping - no grain leaving Ukraine - unlike what Jens Stoltenbeg said earlier this week.

Grain
For the first time since March 2022, Russia entered the top five largest grain suppliers to the EU, and immediately moved into fourth place. According to Eurostat, purchases of Russian grain increased by 22% over the month and 10 times over the year – up to 180 thousand tons.“Sanctions,” they said and continued to purchase Russian grain.

China
Trade turnover between Russia and China has again grown faster than planned - already $200 billion since the beginning of the year

The heads of the two countries set a goal of 200 billion for 2024. But by the end of 2023 we will reach 220 billion.

The largest Chinese exports to the Russian Federation: trucks, excavators and loaders, rubber tires. In exchange, Russia sends mainly gas, oil, and coal. There is progress in other industries as well: the Chinese recently lifted all restrictions on the import of pork from the Russian Federation.

US Weapon delays
The Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB) has been delayed again until early 2024. This is a 100 mile (160km) range rocket to be built by SAAB and Boeing.

As the GLDSDB is GPS enabled it will be subject to jamming. I personally suspect they may attempt to add a secondary targeting system but this would make the weapon more expensive and would likely even further delay the release.

For those unaware it is basically a dumb bomb attached to a common M26 rocket with a JDAM style glide kit. This is not a massive warhead as it's 93kg (205lb) with 16kg (35lb) of explosive which is slightly small then the payload of a GMLRS (23kg/51lb).

Arestovich: desertions
Oleksiy Arestovich, a former adviser to the president’s office, called for peace talks with Russia and said he would run for president.
"Our problem is that, let me give you some figures - 100 people who have arbitrarily left military units per day in Ukraine. 100 people per day per day per day - that's a brigade per month.

UKR lost 125k troops in 6 months
Sergei Shoigu - Russian Minister of Defense

BBC News Russian, Mediazona, and a team of volunteers, Russian military fatalities stood at around 35,780 as of November 3, 2023, excluding casualties from the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk “people’s republics” (DNR and LNR). However, this figure is almost certainly a significant underestimate, as not all military funerals are public. Having cross-referenced these names with inheritance data, Meduza and Mediazona estimated the real number to have already been close to 47,000 as of last May. Adding in an approximate 20,000 from the DNR and LNR, the military death toll on the pro-Russian side may well exceed 70,000

Russia Armed Forces Grow
Putin signed a decree establishing the authorized strength of the Russian Armed Forces at 2,209,130 people, including 1,320,000 military personnel, the Kremlin said - increase of 170K

Russian Ministry of Defense:

The increase in the number of military personnel in the Russian Armed Forces is being implemented in stages at the expense of citizens who express a desire to serve under a contract.
The increase in staffing levels is due to the growing threats to Russia associated with the Northern Military District and the ongoing expansion of NATO.
An additional increase in the combat strength and strength of the Russian Armed Forces is an adequate response to the aggressive activities of NATO

Russian Defence Ministry report on the progress of the special military operation

AI: Q*
Open AI
Sam Altman fired as CEO of Board “program or a creature”
Learning to think
abstracting to understand new data and improving itself
developing efficiency in the way it solves.
Solving mathematics
“checking itself” as it solves “is thai right? Let me check”
AES-192 - crypto at risk

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