The Latest Poll Numbers Are In

The latest NBC News poll shows President Joe Biden’s lowest approval rating ever at 40%, with 57% disapproving, marking a significant drop from earlier in the year.
The poll also indicates a shift in foreign policy approval, particularly related to the Israel-Hamas conflict.Show more

Notably, the poll suggests that Donald Trump is leading among potential Republican nominees for the next election, with significant momentum for Nikki Haley.

In a potential 2024 rematch, Trump is shown to be ahead of Biden by a small margin, marking a shift from previous polls.

“As the war between Israel and Hamas rages, it is having a transformative impact on our politics. We have a brand new NBC News poll out this morning, which shows the toll it is taking on the president,” said NBC’s Kristen Welker.

Steve Kornacki agreed, saying, “I think you’re right to set it up that way. What’s happening in the Middle East really does seem to be connecting with what’s happening domestically in our politics. Let’s start with the bottom line here. President Biden, what is his job approval rating? We measure it now at 40%, with 57% disapproving.”

“The significance is that is the lowest President Biden has ever measured in our poll in terms of job approval. Just look at the sea change from the start of this year. Recall, remember, Democrats coming off strong from the 2020 midterms, he was almost even. Now he’s 17 points underwater.”

“If you look by party, it’s significant for two reasons. One, independents, obviously, more than two to one disapprove. You don’t want to be there as an incumbent president. But equally significant, no surprise, 7% of Republicans approve of Joe Biden’s job performance, but three times as many Democrats, 21%, more than one in five, say they disapprove.”

“You need much more unified support in your own party than if you’ll have a successful re-election campaign. We mentioned the drop in that approval rating and the connection of the Middle East. Here it is: on foreign policy, 33% approve of Joe Biden’s job performance. Just in September, we asked the same question, and it was 41-53.”

“These numbers surprised our own pollsters with one saying he cannot remember a time when a foreign entanglement that didn’t involve U.S. troops had the power to transform the electorate, and that’s not the case in this poll,” Welker said.

“To go a step further, this jumps out at you, too,” Kornacki added.

“Overall, this is the handling of the Israel-Hamas war. It kind of measures overall with Biden’s foreign policy approval, but look at this. Among the oldest group of voters, 65+, there’s a majority that approve how Biden is handling this, that’s +12. Look at the youngest group of voters: 20 approve, 70% disapprove — he’s 50% underwater with the youngest voters. That’s a 62-point net swing between youngest and oldest on this topic of Israel and Hamas.”

Additionally, there’s a notable change in the likability ratings between Biden and Trump, as well as a shift in support among younger voters.

The poll also indicates a significant shift in support when Biden is pitted against an unnamed Republican, suggesting a potential challenge for Bidem.

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