Big Solar Flares & Solar Storms on the Menu _ Solar Storm Forecast 23 November 2023
Sun activity for November 23, 2023: M flare outshone by a volley of eruptions
Today’s top news: An M1.5 flare has brought activity up to moderate, but its limelight has been stolen by three fast filament eruptions in the northeast. First, a large filament – that is, a rope of solar material and magnetic fields – exploded from just over the northeast limb at 2:14 UTC this morning. Then another filament from over the northeast limb erupted at 5:29 UTC, followed by another at 6:59 UTC. These eruptions appear to be coming from an energetic region that has not quite yet rotated into view. While the M1.5 flare technically produced more light emission than the eruptions, the notable brightening of the filaments stole our attention away from the flare. The three eruptions produced coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that were visible in the SOHO spacecraft’s LASCO C2 instrument. These are all under analysis to determine if any are coming Earth’s way.
Last 24 hours: Sun activity is moderate after an isolated M flare. Between 11 UTC yesterday and 11 UTC today, the sun produced ten flares: one M and nine Cs. The largest, the M1.5 flare, came from sunspot group AR3494 in the southeast at 3:38 UTC on November 23. Shortly after this flare, an R1 (minor) radio blackout was registered affecting an area over off the northwest coast of Australia. The most active region of the period was AR3492 in the northeast with five C flares. There are currently nine numbered active regions on the Earth-viewed side of our star. Two of them, AR3490 and AR3492, are showing a beta-gamma configuration. The rest remain stable with alpha or beta configurations.
Next 24 hours: Today’s forecast is a 99% chance for C flares, a 55% chance for M flares, and a 10% chance for X flares.
Next expected CME: There is coronal mass ejections (CMEs) observed in SOHO’s LASCO C2 around 7 UTC on November 22 that may provide a glancing blow at Earth by November 25. Modeling and analysis are ongoing for another three CMEs, one at 21:24 UTC on November 22, and two on November 23 around 2:30 UTC and 7 UTC.
Current geomagnetic activity: Earth’s magnetic field is quiet at the time of this writing (11 UTC on November 23). Unsettled conditions are expected for the rest of the day as the effects due to high-speed solar wind from a coronal hole start to wane. Active conditions are expected on November 25 with the arrival of a CME hurled by the sun on November 22.
https://earthsky.org/sun/sun-activity-solar-flare-cme-aurora-updates/
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