Ivan Katchanovski on the Future of Ukraine | ArtiFact 51: Alex Sheremet, Ivan Katchanovski

Now that Israel’s invasion of Gaza is center stage, Russia’s war in Ukraine is getting less attention. This has frustrated Zelensky in the midst of bad news. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed, and both Ukrainian and Western officials are wondering if negotiations should be the next step. This will require preparing the Ukrainian public for the possibility of a worse peace deal (and less land) than in 2015 and 2022.

In ArtiFact 51, Alex Sheremet is joined by University of Ottawa professor and Ukrainian-Canadian scholar Ivan Katchanovski to discuss the Russia-Ukraine War, the costs to Ukraine, the impact of the war in Gaza, and recent developments in the Maidan massacre.

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B Side topics: how Russian state media presents Palestine & Palestinians; Russia’s policy in the Middle East; the role of Dmitry Medvedev in Russian politics, propaganda; Medvedev’s Telegram posts; Russia’s might seek more territory; Belarus as a client state; the case of Ivan Bubenchik in Maidan; a Ukrainian law which allows murder?; more Maidan details come to light after the trial; the most common objections to Ivan Katchanovski’s claims; what if Maidan protesters were not in control of every building; how the Svoboda Party provided muscle; Ivan has been to Hotel Ukraina many times; the testimony of hotel staff; the future of Ukraine; de-population, poverty, & the refugee problem; Ukrainian dependence on Western aid; Ukraine should join the European Union; the EU acts like a political/military rather than economic union; can Russia and the United States cultivate an alliance; observing right-wing Russian nationalists

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Timestamps:

1:28 – introducing Ivan Katchanovski, professor at University of Ottawa

4:08 – the conflict in Gaza will have consequences for the Ukraine War; comparing the Palestine and Ukraine conflicts; why Barack Obama didn’t want to arm Ukraine; AIPAC vs. Ukraine; Russia pivots to Palestine

8:14 – Russia & Obama; the Israel-Ukraine relationship; Zelensky trying to turn Ukraine “into the new Israel”; Zelensky’s anti-democratic reforms;

19:51 – was Ukraine pressured into its 2023 counter-offensive; how Zelensky gets conflated with “Ukraine” & Ukrainian opinion; Ukraine as an abused proxy; why Russia was presented as weak; fissures in the war narrative cropped up as early as summer 2022

30:40 – sanctions don’t have the intended effect; Ukraine’s PR battles in Bakhmut and Mariupol; tensions between Zelensky, Zaluzhny, and other generals; Ukraine might engage in political prosecutions; was Zaluzhny’s aide involved in an assassination attempt?

46:12 – grenades & pomegranates; the status of the Ukraine war; Putin’s possible behavior in 2024; how bad statistics were used to sell a proxy war; are the witnesses to the March/April 2022 negotiations credible; the Boris Johnson angle

1:02:02 – re-visiting the Maidan Massacre; Ivan Katchanovski’s claims vs. police involvement in protester killings; why the Maidan trial dragged out for a decade; destroyed evidence; the exclusion of most ballistic analyses; the New York Times model from 2018

1:27:00 – previewing the Patron show; Ivan Katchanovski’s upcoming book on Maidan and the roots of Russia/Ukraine War

Tags: #russiaukrainewar #politics #ukraine