The Marvels, using the iso-crap (TM) Model

Movies are wonderful things.
Movie revenue starts on an opening weekend, and then the income decreases, and the movie is pulled from theatres.Show more

Here we introduce the Iso-Crap model of movie revenue.
Equally crappy movies have the same proportionally crappy opening, and so might be scaled.
That’s the theory, and for five minutes or less it might be sorta accurate.

We take as examples, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Blue Beetle, Ant man Quantum-mania, and Blue Beetle. These are financially underperforming recent movies of the same fantasy genre.

All of the domestic box office revenue is normalized, meaning divided by the first three days of revenue.

Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny has an initial three day opening of: 60 point 4 million.
And a total domestic box office of: 174 million.

Therefore, the iso-crap of Indiana Jones has a value of 1 at three days, and 174 divided by 60.4 or 2.89 at day 77.

Blue Beetle had an initial three day opening of: 25 point zero million.
And a total domestic box office of: 72 point 49 million.

Therefore, the iso-crap of blue beetle is a value of 1 after three days, and 72.48 divided by 25.0 or 2.896 at day 77.

Blue Beetle and Indiana Jones and the Dustbin of density have very similar iso-craps.

Ant Man Quantum-mania had an initial three day opening of: 106 point one million.
And a total domestic box office of: 214 point five million.

Therefore, the iso-crap of Ant Man Quantum-mania has a value of 1 at three days, and 214.5 divided by 106 or 2.02 at day 119.

The Flash had an initial three day opening of: 55 point zero million.
And a total domestic box office of: 108 point one million.

Therefore, the iso-crap of The Flash has a value of 1 at three days, and 108.1 divided by 55.0 or 1.96 at day 63.

Ant Man Quantum-Mania and The flash have similar iso-craps,

Figure One.

The iso-craps for these four movies are shown in the figure.

So, Where does captain marvel and the Mids come in?

The Marvels had an opening three day of 46 point one million.

Assuming it is iso-crappy with Antman and the Flash, it will have a domestic iso-crap of around 2 when it finally is pulled, and hence a domestic box office of 92 million.

If the Marvels has an Isocrap of Indian Jones and the thing we’ve already forgotten about, it will top off at three times the initial three day opening, or three times forty six, or a domestic revenue of about 138 million dollars.

The performance of The Marvels is shown in Figure two.
At this point, after ten days, it does not appear that the Marvels is noticeably different from the four other randomly chosen movies.

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