6 months ago

The Deep404 - analysis of global events. Global Update 15th Nov 2023
#deep404 #israel #israelwarnews #usisscared
The US is very worried
This is bad for Israel

Iran - Supreme leader - Ayatollah Ali Khameni
Iran - President - Ebrahim Raisi

Iranian President - Ebrahim Raisi - traveled to Saudi Arabia in 1st visit by Iranian President in over 10 years - recent rapprochement between SA and Iran
Attended joint Arab-Islamic emergency summit of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation
Met with both Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salem Al Saud (MBS) and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi for the first time.
Also in attendance Syrian President Bassah Al Assad, turkish president recep tayyip erdogan and Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas and Qatar’s Emir Sheik Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani
The group rejected claims that Israel’s response is self-defense and declared that all arm sales to Israel should be halted

Israeli arms sales
70% US, 24% Germany, 6%Italy - 1% UK/Canada
Interestingly India is the largest purchaser of Israeli arms - factor of 4, then Azerbaijan, Philippines and the US.

Israel military - overview - go to sources - from Al Jazeera
170k active - 465k reserve
2k+ tanks
339 combat capable aircraft
310 ground attack fighters (200 F-16, 80 F-15, 30 F-35)
140 Helos (40 Apache)
50 patrol and coastal boats
5 submarines

OID - future rule of Gaza
Us Secretary of State - Tony Blinken - believes that Palestinian Authority should have central role - Blinken met Mahmoud Abbas earlier this month
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - believes that Israel should do this for at least a year
Times of Israel reporting on a piece written for the Wall Street Journal by ruling Likud Party (Danny Danon) and Ram Ben-Barak Opposition party (Yesh Atid) - where the Israeli lawmakers have called “countries around the world to accept limited numbers of Gazan families who have expressed a desire to relocate.”
“The international community has a moral imperative—and an opportunity—to demonstrate compassion, help the people of Gaza move toward a more prosperous future and work together to achieve greater peace and stability in the Middle East.”
The pair did not call for a ceasefire.
800,000 displaced residents of Gaza of a population of approx 2.0M
The hypocrisy of their statement is staggering - ‘the rest of the world should address the refugee problem we are causing by bombing gaza relentlessly’ - is a demonstration of the depth of this conflict and how difficult a true resolution to this conflict will be.

What might happen in a full ground war in Israel?
Israel: 170K active + 465k reserve = 635k army
US: 45k

Total: 680K

Hamas: 40k
Lebanon: 84k Army + 100k Hezbollah = 184K
Syria: 170K active + 50k reserve = 230K
Iran: 610k active + 350k reserve = 960k
Turkiye: 1M

Total: 2.5M

3.7 : 1 ratio

Note - the ability to increase numbers from Arab and Muslim countries in rapid time (by volunteers/mobilisation) far exceeds what the US can do - simple due to geography - the US can deploy their Navy and transport additional troops however this is limited and slow compared the Muslim forces that will walk if needed
US missile capability - may give an initial advantage - but again, resupply becomes difficult as Arab forces will target any US resupply attempts by sea and overland is not possible.
US and Israeli air force will initially be very strong - but again resupply, refueling becomes difficult as US ability to supply troops is hampered
Arabs will cut access to Oil from the Persian Gulf - if Egypt become involved then the Suez Canal will close to US warships
GO TO MAP
This is why US does not want war in Israel - because it can’t win - its ability to project power into the centre of the middle east is zero once the Arab nations unite
US bases in Syria and Iraq are already coming under daily attack with reports that there are injuries and deaths - only 3.4K troops in Syria/Iraq)
Ships won’t be able to approach except from the Med (this is a long slow route from the US - and if Turkiye becomes involved then this route becomes fraught with danger
AND - if the Arab world has united against Israel and the US - then the US has another problem to content with - internal attack. Once a global Jihad is declared upon the US all radical Muslims within the US will be compelled to obey and this will result in a level of domestic turmoil within US the likes of which have not been seen before.
Note the term Jihad literally means “to strive or struggle within oneself against sin” but has been adapted as a term referring to a holy-war against the enemies of Islam.
Sister channel to @the3ps TheThirdPartyShow. #deep404