The Causes of the War between Hamas and Israel

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On October 7, 2023, Hamas initiated an offensive against Israel in a manner unseen for a half century. This video goes deep into the broader source of the conflict. Unlike traditional explanations, it highlights bargaining frictions as a key cause. It is not sufficient to simply point to the substantive issues in dispute between Hamas and Israel. As long as war is costly, both sides should prefer avoiding a war in principle. Thus, we must explain the conflict using bargaining frictions: first strike advantages, long-term shifts in the balance of power, uncertainty over the outcome of war, or leader biases.

Hope you like some lines on maps, because there is going to be a heavy dose of them today!

0:00 Hamas and Israel at War
2:25 The Substantive Conflict
5:53 War's Inefficiency Puzzle
10:37 First Strike Advantages and Preemptive War
13:04 Power Shifts, Preventive War, and Saudi Arabia
16:13 Information Problems and Turbulent Israeli Politics
17:36 Leader Benefits and Violence as Advertisement
19:02 Which One Caused the War?
20:40 Can You Get KFC in Gaza?

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