Americans Doubt Democracy, Support Political Violence (MIRROR) Forewarned is forearmed

Americans Doubt Democracy, Support Political Violence
Surprise is the enemy.
Early Warning helps take away the element of surprise the future holds over us.Show more

Each Friday, we produce a comprehensive risk analysis of the future, helping you gain insight and turn uncertainty into certainty.

With Early Warning, you can join the small group of Americans who “saw it coming.”

Forewarned is forearmed.

Sign up here: https://forwardobserver.com/subscribe

https://www.youtube.com/live/nQ6mjUMgCrk?si=5OBMVsr9dUz3LPtn
TRANSCRIPT
0:09
hello and good morning everybody Welcome
0:11
to the Daily sitre for Thursday the 19th
0:13
of October
0:15
2023 I'm Mike Shelby we're going to talk
0:17
about the top five things to start your
0:19
day this morning and I think we're gonna
0:22
just going to cover the top five things
0:24
every day if you want access to the full
0:26
sitre the things that we don't talk
0:27
about you can head over to forward
0:29
observer.com that is our website and if
0:32
you scroll down just a short little ways
0:33
you'll find a little box you can put
0:35
your email in there and you can get the
0:36
report every morning I think that goes
0:38
out at like 7 maybe 7:30 a.m. Central
0:41
Time each and every morning Monday
0:43
through Thursday and then of course on
0:44
Friday we jump over and do our early
0:47
morning briefing for subscribers and
0:49
that's where we really talk about we
0:50
really get into the weeds of what we
0:52
think is going to happen in the future
0:53
and how to prepare for those things so
0:56
good morning uh to all our domestic
0:59
conus and oconus all our International
1:02
viewers that's always a a sight to see
1:05
all right let's uh start off with Robert
1:07
here Robert there's a University of
1:10
Virginia poll that shows over a third of
1:13
Americans apparently say that uh
1:16
violence may be necessary for political
1:19
purposes to stop the other team from
1:21
doing what they want uh pretty
1:23
incredible you also note this is
1:25
trending upward it's it's more than what
1:27
we saw just a few years ago so what do
1:29
we need to know
1:30
good morning Mike that's right so this
1:32
University of Virginia's Center for
1:34
politics poll showed that about 31% of
1:37
former president Donald Trump supporters
1:39
and about a quarter of uh President Joe
1:42
Biden supporters said that democracy is
1:44
no longer viable and this is a slight
1:45
increase from a previous poll that UVA
1:47
did in 2021 where they showed about 80%
1:51
of both you know supported the American
1:53
democratic system so you know and this
1:55
this looks like a trend of uh Americans
1:58
increasingly doub Ting the legitimacy of
2:01
the democratic system in the United
2:04
States seems that
2:07
way let me talk about low intensity
2:09
conflict real quick this is actually an
2:12
area where I can get real deep low
2:14
intensity conflict is is a conflict
2:17
beneath the threshold of conventional
2:19
War so we're not talking about tanks and
2:21
and bombers and troops fighting in the
2:23
streets U but we but it is above routine
2:26
peaceful competition and what we are
2:28
seeing today is not just political
2:30
Warfare it is game theoretic defection
2:33
these are if this poll is accurate which
2:35
I believe it to be generally accurate as
2:37
a matter of fact due to selection bias
2:40
it's probably far higher than what's
2:43
actually being reported because you're
2:45
only going to get us so many people who
2:47
say who believe in political violence or
2:48
at least Express the belief in political
2:50
violence to actually say they believe it
2:52
so if anything I think this is
2:54
underrepresented again 41% of Biden
2:56
supporters and 38% of trump supporters
2:58
said it was except acceptable to employ
3:00
political violence to prevent political
3:03
opponents from achieving their goals low
3:06
intensity conflict in this country
3:08
started I think it probably started with
3:10
a class war in 2008 it really ramped up
3:12
from 2016 obviously hitting a high
3:15
watermark in
3:17
2020 and just from looking at far
3:19
far-left groups every week I see the
3:21
same very similar Anarchist
3:24
revolutionary and radical Anarchist
3:25
socialist and communist groups far-left
3:27
extremist groups ramping up to make
3:30
2024 another another go another a redo
3:34
of
3:35
2020 so low intensity conflict is actual
3:39
conflict but typically traditionally
3:42
historically when you look at the actual
3:45
armed violence the the coordinated
3:49
organized political violence that we see
3:51
in low intensity conflicts around the
3:52
world it is far less than 1% It is half
3:56
a percent sometimes just a fraction of
3:59
of tiny fraction of 1% actually involved
4:02
in any kind of armed struggle or armed
4:05
political violence and so when I look at
4:09
41% of Biden voters and 38% of trump
4:13
supporters at
4:14
least saying it's acceptable to employ
4:17
political violence that is a social base
4:21
when when we look at Insurgency we're
4:22
looking at Social bases we're looking at
4:24
groups of people who are agitated and
4:26
who are preparing for armed conflict
4:29
that is like the number one indicator
4:31
you have political and social groups who
4:33
are pissed off they're agitated and they
4:37
see no future in the political system
4:40
for them or they see the other threat as
4:43
or see the other side as a threat to the
4:45
the entire political system that's
4:47
exactly what analysts are looking for
4:49
when they're trying to front run an
4:51
Insurgency or trying to track the
4:52
development of any kind of incy and low
4:55
intensity conflict ranges from
4:57
everything
4:58
from uh from violent social movements
5:01
which we're already seeing to terrorism
5:02
which we're already seeing to uh
5:04
Insurgency and popular revolution I
5:06
think 2020 was a Proto Insurgency it was
5:09
definitely a popular an attempted
5:11
popular revolution and you look at the
5:13
literature and and read the blogs and
5:15
social media accounts of some of these
5:17
far-left influencers and organizers and
5:19
it is apparent they're trying to make
5:21
2024 into another 2020 so I see all
5:25
these things as accelerators and it just
5:27
I think it's very likely next year is
5:30
going to be an incredibly bumpy
5:32
ride and we will be here through all
5:35
that by the way every Friday I publish
5:38
my far-left playbook and so I'm tracking
5:39
all these far-left groups if you want
5:41
access to that head over to Ford
5:42
observer.com
5:43
subscribe you can get that report each
5:45
and every Friday get some inside
5:47
baseball on what the far-left is talking
5:48
about what they're doing what they're
5:50
planning and I always provide the latest
5:53
on what we can expect into the future
5:56
all right with that um Robert do you
5:58
have anything else to add on this item
6:01
um nothing other than you know this just
6:03
seems to be a concerning Trend as we're
6:06
we're heading into what could be
6:08
probably the most contentious election
6:10
year uh you know in recent history that
6:13
that uh surprisingly a surprising amount
6:17
of you know Biden supporters actually
6:19
don't think democracy is viable you know
6:21
I I would expect that a certain amount
6:23
of trump supporters would think would
6:25
think that you know a lot of the
6:26
narratives about the 2020 election but
6:29
it's very concerning to me that and also
6:31
you know the the what seems to be a
6:32
growing support for political
6:36
violence yep thank you Robert hey by the
6:38
way let me talk about game theoretic
6:40
defection real quick I got this from
6:41
Joshua Steinman he's a he was a senior
6:45
National Security staffer under Trump
6:47
and in Game Theory Game theoretic
6:50
defection happens when one side defects
6:52
from the game and they defect because
6:55
the other side is no longer playing by
6:56
the rules you know it's kind of like
6:58
having a football or B baseball game or
7:00
something when the other team stops
7:01
playing by the rules there's no reason
7:02
to play and so you defect from the game
7:05
you you leave your your game you take
7:06
your ball and you go home where you
7:08
start playing a different game and I
7:10
think that is exactly I think that is
7:11
the best way to describe what's
7:13
happening to the US political system
7:15
right now is we are seeing people on
7:17
both sides of the political Spectrum
7:19
left right if you want to believe that
7:22
or whatever however you're going to
7:24
break this country down ideologically I
7:26
think it's I think it's a lot more
7:27
complex than just left and right
7:28
obviously
7:29
but we are seeing people from both sides
7:32
now defecting if this polling is
7:34
accurate which I think it's generally if
7:36
not specifically accurate we'll move on
7:39
to uh Harrison uh you have a note this
7:41
morning's report that adjustable rate
7:44
mortgages are uh excuse me adjustable
7:46
rate mortgage applications are ticking
7:49
upward uh this is not on the level of
7:52
2008 but it is concerning considering
7:54
we're heading straight into a real
7:55
estate crisis so what do we need to know
7:58
good morning Mike so yeah let me hit you
8:00
with a uh dramatic number so the average
8:03
rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage
8:06
hit 8% yesterday that's the highest rate
8:08
in 23
8:10
years at the same time we're seeing you
8:12
know home prices are still high so you
8:14
combine those high prices with high
8:16
interest rates and home affordability
8:20
has fallen to the lowest level since the
8:22
early
8:23
1980s so we're seeing potential us home
8:26
buyers trying to save on interest cost
8:29
and they're increasingly turning to
8:30
adjustable rate mortgages to Arms to do
8:33
so so the bottom line here Mike is that
8:36
uh These Arms can feature an initial
8:39
lower rate for as little as six months
8:41
before rates reset higher and so us home
8:44
buyers who take on arms are betting that
8:46
interest rates will fall and that allows
8:49
them to refinance at a lower rate but if
8:52
rates stay high through next year then
8:55
we'll see more of these homeowners as
8:57
well as the banks carrying the
8:59
adjustable rate mortgage loans they
9:01
could all be in you know really bad
9:03
financial trouble especially with job
9:05
losses from a recession next year
9:08
Mike all right so so we have high home
9:10
prices we have high mortgage rates
9:14
adjustable rate mortgages are these
9:16
these mortgage and loan companies trying
9:18
to entice new buyers to get them in and
9:21
say so that s uh mortgage rates are at
9:24
8% or whatever we'll give it to you at
9:26
five or 6% you said for six months 12
9:29
maybe 12 months maybe three years and
9:31
then that rate adjusts I mean is that
9:33
what's happening here basically these
9:34
mortgage companies are trying to entice
9:36
new buyers in yeah um that's exact yeah
9:39
that's what's happening Mike so you
9:40
you're seeing home buyers that are
9:42
wanting to buy existing homes you know
9:44
that maybe can't afford a 30-year fixed
9:46
at 8% yeah go with an arm that has you
9:49
know an initial rate of you know let's
9:52
say six 6% six and a half% or so and
9:55
then you're seeing also some of the uh
9:57
big home builders are offering their own
9:59
financing too that's below the 30-year
10:02
fixed rate so that's obviously
10:03
incentivizing people to buy new homes
10:05
instead of exist existing homes so yeah
10:08
those two things are going on in the
10:09
marketplace right now yeah we looked at
10:11
a house some time ago and and that was
10:14
one of the things is uh far less than
10:17
20% down payment and uh and also a a
10:21
lower lower mortgage rate because these
10:23
home builders are just trying to offload
10:24
they've built so many houses that are
10:26
not selling for what they had hoped by
10:28
the way was looking at a home the other
10:30
day in Dallas and this was a a
10:32
million-dollar home and just over the
10:35
past year it was a million dollars then
10:37
it was
10:39
9939 and then it was 900 and then it was
10:41
like 850 and now it's sitting at $699 so
10:45
if you live in that community of million
10:46
dollar homes guess what you don't really
10:48
have a million-dollar home because the
10:50
your neighbor's house is not selling for
10:52
a million bucks that's going to be a
10:55
really tough reality to people who
10:56
bought homes in the past couple years
10:59
all right Harrison any other uh points
11:00
on this yeah I saw that tweet too Mike
11:03
yeah so um home buyers are really going
11:06
to face uh Market reality once that
11:09
first that first homeowner sells in a
11:11
neighborhood and then home values are
11:13
just going to start dropping white
11:16
rocks yes all right uh that's two out of
11:20
five let's move on to number three so
11:21
Harrison xiening Chinese president X
11:24
jimping gave a speech yesterday about
11:27
the Bel and Road initiative and he's
11:29
saying that this you know BR is
11:31
obviously part of this uh broader
11:34
strategy from China to replace us backed
11:37
institutions especially the
11:39
international institutions here so what
11:41
do we need to know about this speech
11:42
especially given that apparently was
11:44
talking about their alliance with Russia
11:46
as well what do we need to know yeah so
11:48
for some more context Mike so China
11:50
hosted the Bel and Road initiative to B
11:53
like you said Forum in Beijing yesterday
11:56
they had members from more than 130
11:58
countries ATT ending that so Chinese
12:00
president she he criticized Western
12:02
Count's efforts to reduce our dependence
12:04
on the Chinese economy uh in his opening
12:07
speech he said quote our lives will not
12:09
be better and our development will not
12:12
be faster if we view the development of
12:14
others as a threat and economic inter
12:17
interdependence as a risk Russian
12:20
President Vladimir Putin attended he he
12:22
met with Chinese officials and the
12:24
sidelines of the conference and Russia
12:26
and China reportedly agreed that their
12:28
country to deepen Regional cooperation
12:31
and explore cooperation in strategic
12:33
emerging
12:35
Industries the bottom line here Mike is
12:37
that you know Western leaders have
12:38
insisted that their goal is to drisk not
12:41
decouple from China they're aiming to
12:45
diversify Supply chains away from the
12:46
world's second largest economy but
12:49
Meanwhile we're seeing the global South
12:50
countries these are developing countries
12:53
mostly located in the southern
12:54
hemisphere they're aligning with China
12:57
and Russia to grow their economies boost
12:59
their trade increase their security and
13:02
this is really revealing that us and
13:04
gmany is slipping
13:08
away certainly under threat Harrison
13:12
thank you for that let's move on now to
13:14
number four which is Israel by the way
13:17
guys for people who are just joining I
13:19
think we're just going to hit the top
13:20
five items every morning on this show
13:22
keep it brief keep it moving and if you
13:24
want access to the full Daily sitre in
13:26
email you can head over to our website
13:28
for observer.com and uh go sign up right
13:31
there on the homepage hey let me say
13:34
just a a brief point about yesterday
13:36
this whole Gaza Hospital bombing I
13:39
everyone's seen it by now we saw the
13:41
pictures um and this is just it really
13:45
is a good a good example of
13:48
how it's very difficult to tr to trust
13:51
early reports on anything early reports
13:53
are almost always
13:55
wrong and so uh
14:00
thank goodness we have companies out
14:02
there like maxr and some of the other
14:04
satellite imagery companies who can give
14:06
us access to the same type of
14:08
information that us intelligence
14:10
agencies are looking at every morning as
14:13
well I'm and and we can see that the
14:16
parking lot was damaged and there's no
14:17
damage to the actual Hospital re
14:20
perception is reality as we used to say
14:22
in the Army and that is very true still
14:25
today and um that is one big big problem
14:29
uh in driving this Israel Hamas conflict
14:32
it's just there's so much propaganda
14:34
coming out on both
14:35
sides let's move on here the Israeli
14:38
government announced yesterday that it
14:40
was it was not going to stop
14:42
humanitarian Aid coming into Gaza from
14:44
Egypt as long as it was destined for
14:46
Palestinians and not associated with
14:48
Hamas of course we have the Biden
14:51
Administration cheerleading for a
14:53
hundred billion dollar International Aid
14:55
bill I think the majority of that's
14:57
going to Ukraine some of that in the
14:59
billions is going to probably in the
15:02
tens of billions going to Palestinians
15:04
and then apparently some's going to
15:06
border SEC US border security as well
15:09
Egypt had closed its Rafa border with
15:12
Gaza to prevent Palestinians from
15:14
fleeing into Egypt meanwhile the UN the
15:17
US and United Nations have been
15:19
pressuring Egypt to open up the Rafa
15:21
Crossing so that humanitarian Aid can
15:23
make it to the
15:25
Palestinians why it matters Max says
15:27
Israel is likely pleading Ed with this
15:29
Egyptian move to open the Rafa border
15:31
crossing as as its ties with the
15:34
Palestinians are closer to Egypt as a
15:36
potential alternative to the failed
15:37
State failed two-state solution ma says
15:41
while both Jordan and Egypt have
15:42
declared that Palestinians are not
15:44
welcome in their countries it is likely
15:46
that International diplomatic arm
15:47
twisting will result in some level of
15:50
acceptance by
15:52
Cairo by Egypt of Palestinians forced to
15:55
permanently leave Gaza there's something
15:57
like two million palestin Indians in
15:59
Jordan by the way and this is a real
16:02
it's a real sticking point for King
16:04
abdella over in Jordan bottom line here
16:07
Max says expect a combination of
16:08
immigration to Egypt and Europe to play
16:11
a key role in finding new homes for
16:13
these Palestinians in Gaza and I think
16:16
there's even some us American Democrats
16:20
who are pushing for uh up to a million
16:23
Palestinian accepting up to a million
16:25
Palestinian refugees in the United
16:26
States and I'll just I got to be honest
16:28
it's really tough watching the
16:30
pro-israeli and and pro Palestinian or
16:33
Pro Hamas side go at it in American on
16:35
American streets I don't it just doesn't
16:37
make sense to me why we would continue
16:40
to import that Feud into the United
16:41
States we have enough feuds over here
16:44
already all right let's bring Jared on
16:47
here uh this is uh pretty important
16:49
seems like the US USS Mount Whitney got
16:53
underway it is heading over to the
16:55
Israeli theater of conflict um that
16:58
they're going to go support the Gerald
17:00
Ford carrier strike group so what do we
17:02
need to know yep so yesterday the USS
17:05
Mount Whitney got underway and this is
17:08
in support of the response to the Israel
17:10
Hamas War the big thing to know here is
17:12
that the Mount Whitney is the seat of
17:14
the us6 fleet and is commanded by a vice
17:16
admiral which is an 09 uh for those who
17:19
don't know that's the second highest
17:20
rank you can possibly be in the military
17:22
is an
17:23
09 um the Eisenhower group that's a
17:27
three star yes
17:29
yes so in the Army it's lieutenant
17:30
general what is it in the Navy a vice
17:32
admiral vice admiral thank you y uh the
17:36
Eisenhower strike group is already on
17:38
its way to support the mission and
17:39
there's the USS Mesa Verde uh on station
17:43
already and in a slight deviation from
17:46
what they normally do the Department of
17:48
Defense publicized that they were
17:50
extending the Gerald R Ford strike
17:52
groups uh deployment normally that just
17:55
kind of goes under the radar and they
17:57
just do it
17:58
um so what we're seeing here is the dod
18:03
is actually placing a combatant
18:04
commander in charge of this
18:06
operation because the moment that six
18:08
Fleet comes on station he's the ranking
18:10
officer he takes charge uh I have not
18:14
seen this personally done before and the
18:15
fact that they are putting two strike
18:16
groups and have an amphibious read
18:19
amphibious Readiness group split and on
18:21
station tells me that they are preparing
18:25
for either absolute deterrence saying we
18:28
you know you will not do this or if they
18:30
uh have their hand pushed respond with
18:32
overwhelming and immediate
18:36
Force I have seen on this topic
18:40
Jaren this is what you would expect if
18:42
the United States were going to enter
18:44
the war I don't think that's Biden's
18:46
most preferred course of action however
18:49
there has been some back and forth
18:51
between Israel excuse me between uh
18:54
Iranian leaders and then you know also
18:56
Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and then
18:59
you have some Iranian excuse me Iraqi
19:02
proxy groups launching missiles and
19:04
launching attacks against us bases still
19:07
in Iraq like kab Hezbollah is one of
19:09
those groups that was one of my primary
19:13
focuses when I was deployed to Iraq is
19:14
tracking those Shia groups and so
19:18
uh this I mean this looks like what you
19:20
would expect before an American strike
19:23
is this what you're seeing as well uh I
19:25
didn't want to go that far just because
19:27
I don't know if we're going to fully
19:29
into the war it may just be a bluff on
19:31
their part but if I were going to
19:32
prepare for war I'd send maybe one or
19:35
two more units and we don't know what
19:36
kind of independent steaming destroyers
19:38
they have out there right now as well
19:40
those are not
19:41
publicized uh so there could be you know
19:44
five or six of those sitting around um
19:47
plus we don't know what uh what Allied
19:52
has or what Allied Forces have been not
19:54
publicized and are also attending so
19:56
there could be a significant Force here
19:58
that's just not reported and we are
20:00
prepared to go to
20:02
war yeah I always go back to that quote
20:04
from Charles Crow Crow Hammer peace be
20:07
upon him uh cruise missiles make weak
20:10
presidents feel strong and I you know I
20:12
do wonder if this is a case where we
20:14
could see us cruise missile strikes
20:16
against hez Bala against uh kab has
20:20
Hezbollah and maybe some of these other
20:22
groups um any other insight into that
20:25
Jared I mean a cruise missile strike
20:27
seems to be the most likely course of
20:29
action if the US were to get involved
20:31
however uh that I mean that could
20:33
obviously very very quickly turn into a
20:35
much larger conf confli thing uh what do
20:39
you what do you think about that
20:42
uh I think that has a high chance of
20:44
escalating and one thing one other thing
20:47
just kind of tactically to keep in mind
20:48
is that the more ships you put in here
20:50
you're talking two strike groups and at
20:52
least one other or at least two other
20:54
ships so you that's 12 ships at a
20:57
minimum just from the US sitting in
20:59
there in an already busy shipping Lane
21:01
if cruise missiles start flying from the
21:04
coast then you
21:07
know then uh sorry about keep
21:11
going if Cru missile start flying from
21:13
the coast you run the risk of either uh
21:17
groups being unable to properly defend
21:19
themselves because it's too crowded or
21:22
having civilian shipping accidentally
21:24
fired upon uh just you know you you
21:27
launch off your
21:28
electronic decoys it works but the
21:31
missile refines a new Target and it's
21:33
the wrong
21:34
target there's there's a lot that can go
21:37
wrong with this many moving
21:39
pieces hey let's let's stay here for
21:42
just a couple more minutes Harrison can
21:44
you join
21:46
us all right Jared I'm not a Navy guy
21:48
from a Navy perspective though I mean
21:50
are we looking at the operators of the
21:53
Suz Canal or or shipping shipping
21:56
companies or even insurance carriers who
21:59
Ure these ships saying you can't Transit
22:02
through the Suz Canal anymore because
22:04
the risk is too high we're not going to
22:05
insure your your boats uh Jared Harrison
22:08
what are your thoughts on
22:12
that uh Harrison I'll let you go first
22:15
just because it's from the perspective
22:16
of the
22:17
insurers
22:19
well I guess to address a a bigger Point
22:22
than just the Suez Mike is the fact that
22:25
I mean we're looking at a a serious
22:28
potential disruption to global trade and
22:30
and especially Global oil trade not just
22:32
in the Suz but if if Turkey gets pulled
22:35
into this we're looking at you know one
22:38
more choke point the BOS Straits in
22:41
Istanbul and then if Iran gets pulled on
22:44
this we're looking at disruption in the
22:45
straight of horuse and if that happens
22:48
we're talking about some serious
22:49
disruptions to trade and oil and oil
22:55
skyrocketing uh on that note I brought
22:59
up yesterday operation pray mantis which
23:01
actually this seems to be kind of
23:03
echoing because when Kuwait was shut
23:06
down we started sending in escorts which
23:09
would help alleviate the fears of the
23:12
insurance companies so if we were doing
23:14
escorts and somebody did decide to
23:17
actually you know shut those down and
23:19
called us on it that could lead to
23:21
immediate use of force like it did in
23:24
1988 uh we actually cut I think we
23:27
destroyed like a third of Iran's Navy
23:31
they only recently just got rid of one
23:32
of those frigs
23:34
too
23:35
MH interesting all right well it seems
23:38
like another Global flasho with some us
23:41
implications just briefly Harrison I
23:44
mean it's it's been your thesis that we
23:46
see
23:48
$150 barrel of oil up to $200 per barrel
23:52
you say that could actually induce
23:54
recession that could be I mean are we
23:56
talking about potentially
23:59
catastrophic oil supplies here I and
24:01
then I the second piece of this is
24:03
refineries it almost it almost doesn't
24:06
really matter what the cost of oil is if
24:10
we're limited on on refining then we're
24:11
going to have problems with with
24:13
gasoline and Diesel so just as an oil
24:15
and gas Guy what's your take on that
24:17
yeah Mike so it's really all dependent
24:19
upon what Saudi Arabia does you know um
24:22
they're the ones for the spare capacity
24:24
on the oil market so at what price do
24:27
they jump in and just start just
24:29
unleashing oil to get the the oil price
24:32
down um you know they need a at least
24:36
$80 a barrel to you know for their
24:39
economic diversification plans to get
24:41
away from oil um but you know I'm seeing
24:46
some investment research reports that
24:48
are saying that they're going to that
24:49
they would jump in at $100 a barrel and
24:53
pump more oil to keep prices you know in
24:56
check quite a bit so you know we we
24:58
could see that Spike to 150 or higher it
25:01
might not be
25:03
sustained uh
25:05
for you know for months or or so at a
25:10
time um and then and then regarding the
25:13
refining capacity so we reported
25:15
yesterday that uh California is cracking
25:18
down on uh oil companies you know with
25:21
uh excessive profits or you know
25:24
profiteering so let's remember that
25:27
California as I reported is the number
25:30
three refining state only behind Texas
25:34
and Louisiana so even if we do see A
25:37
disruption to the oil market and even if
25:39
it's not for you know for months on end
25:43
then um if with with California cracking
25:46
down on uh refining companies you know
25:49
we may not have the uh the gasoline and
25:54
other refined products are coming that
25:56
are coming out and uh you know know to
25:58
to be able to suppress prices so we you
26:00
know we could very easily see gas prices
26:03
going up to you know5 $6 or north of
26:06
that even in you know places you know
26:09
where you you know like Texas where Mike
26:11
and I
26:14
are uh a lot to look forward to all
26:17
right but hey it's all about this green
26:19
energy transition right we got to push
26:20
people into electric vehicles so high
26:22
gasoline prices are a a bonus for the
26:25
administration uh kind of aough sell
26:28
going into an election year next year
26:29
but I don't think B's going to make it
26:31
till November next year anyway so all
26:34
right well gentlemen thanks so much uh
26:35
there's a lot more that we didn't cover
26:37
in the daily sitre if you want access to
26:39
that go over to our website forward
26:40
observer.com that's forward observer.com
26:43
and right there on the homepage you can
26:46
uh get uh the free daily sitrep email in
26:49
your inbox it goes out every morning
26:50
about 7 maybe 7:30 central time that's
26:53
going to do it for today's daily sitre
26:55
everyone will be back in your unboxes he
26:57
if you're an early warning subscriber
26:59
our early warning report goes out
27:01
tomorrow and then we'll be back on the
27:02
early wining brief starting at 09
27:04
central time it's over for subscribers
27:07
on our website head over to forward
27:09
observer.com subscribe to join there is
27:12
still time and uh we'll be back on this
27:15
show starting on Monday back right here
27:17
at 06 central time until then be well
27:20
and stay out
27:22
[Music]
27:26
front