Leaked Tory memo predicts double by election defeat blaming enormous discontent on Nadine Dorries

Conservative HQ is claiming the Tory vote share in two upcoming by-elections could halve to around 30%, based on telephone canvassing data over recent days. The resignation of two Tory MPs have triggered by-elections this Thursday in Tamworth, Staffordshire and Mid Bedfordshire, with the party fighting hard to hold on to both. Party officials say the delay over Nadine Dorries quitting the Commons has caused "enormous discontent". There is little concrete data to go on, with constituency polling unreliable and the political parties often only able to see what is going on with their own data. Sky News has obtained a memo to Greg Hands, the Conservative Party chairman, from a senior official at the party HQ. It says in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election, the latest internal polling suggests the party will get a vote share of 30%. This is half the 60% that Ms Dorries won for the Tories in 2019, with Labour on 22% and Lib Dems on 12%.

https://news.sky.com/story/leaked-tory-memo-predicts-double-by-election-defeat-blaming-enormous-discontent-on-nadine-dorries-12986125

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