The Philippines and China are facing a potential direct conflict if current trends continue. Both

The #Philippines and China are facing a potential direct conflict if current trends continue. Both nations have shown little sign of backing down so far, and if current trends continue, the Philippines and China risk sleepwalking into a devastating conflict soon. While taking a tough stance abroad might yield political dividends for Filipino and Chinese leaders at home, it is incumbent on them to pursue a new modus vivendi in the South China Sea.

The newly elected #PhilippinePresident, #FerdinandMarcos, signaled broad continuity with his predecessor, #Rodrigo #Duterte, who proactively courted warm relations with China. Marcos vowed to shift bilateral ties to a "higher gear" following his first phone conversation with #President #XiJinping. However, his relatively short visit to #China in January marked the beginning of an increasingly embittered bilateral relationship. Marcos was disappointed with his failure to gain major concessions from China, especially in the South China Sea. He had hoped to gain a concrete agreement on earlier plans to jointly develop the vast energy resources in the Reed Bank.

Meanwhile, Marcos approved the expansion of #militaryties with the #UnitedStates under the #Enhanced #Defence #Cooperation #Agreement (#EDCA), which in response, #Beijing accused #Manila of stoking regional #tensions, setting the stage for increasingly tense bilateral relations. In the succeeding months, Manila complained of multiple incidents with Chinese maritime forces, including accusations that a Chinese vessel pointed a military-grade laser at Filipino ships, and reports of the Chinese Coast Guard blasting Philippine supply vessels with water cannons in the Second Thomas Shoal.

By all indications, the two sides risk direct confrontation unless they proactively de-escalate tensions through a new modus vivendi in the #SouthChinaSea. To begin with, the #Philippines can actively reassure China against any potential US weaponisation of EDCA bases against China. Manila is still negotiating the size and nature of the #USmilitary presence in its #northernmost #provinces, so there is room for strategic adjustment.

In exchange, #China should stop preventing the #Philippines from strengthening its presence within its own exclusive #economiczone, most notably in the #SecondThomasShoal, which is not even a territory to be claimed. Moreover, China should refrain from harassing and preventing #Filipino #fishermen from accessing their traditional fishing grounds in places such as the #Scarborough #Shoal.

It is important for the two sides to explore constructive deals to enhance mutual trust and goodwill. They should restart negotiations over a possible service contract deal in the #ReedBank area, which is vital to the Philippines' energy security. In exchange for implicit recognition of Philippine #sovereign rights in the area, Manila can contract a China-backed company to help explore and develop the potentially vast hydrocarbon resources in the area.