EHB 1638 Analysis Public

ADVOCATE ALERT:
In Washington State in 2019, a bill passed eliminating the Personal Belief / Philosophical exemption to the MMR school attendance requirement, EHB 1638.
The American Public Health Association has published a study that falsely claims that EHB 1638 is a “success”.
Public Health and Pharma lobbyist will claim this bill increased vaccination rates.

“EHB 1638 implementation was associated with a 5.4% relative increase in kindergarten MMR vaccine series completion rates (95% confidence interval 53.8%, 7.1%; P ≤.001), … MMR exemptions overall decreased 41% (from 3.1% in 2018–2019 to 1.8% in 2019–2020; P ≤.001), and religious exemptions increased 367% (from 0.3% to 1.4%; P ≤.001).”

The study implies that this data shows the use of exemptions reduced, and those same students resumed or started vaccinating, increasing the number of “complete for 2 MMR” over a static K-12 population.

But the exemption rate was only 3.1% - you can’t get a “5.4% relative increase” from restricting a 3.1% exemption, and actual exemption use only reduced from 3.1% to 1.8%, 1.3%. The actual increase in complete was only 3.6%, it is unclear what the “5.4%” was relative to. Very sloppy.

This video analyses how that interpretation of the data is false. The 1.3% actual drop in MMR exemption use, in student count terms, is about 14,000 students over the K-12 system. Those 14,000 students did not abandon their exemptions and resume or begin vaccinating.

Those 14,000 students are part of the near 40,000 students who left the K-12 system in the 2019 / 2020 school year over the Covid mitigations of masking and social distancing, (especially for younger students), and the threat of a Covid vaccine mandate.

The other confounder in the “MMR complete” increase the year after EHB 1638 implementation is that was year one of the Covid disruption.

The major reducer of MMR complete has always been the consistent 6.5% average annual “Out of Compliance”, who are not exempt students with the 1st MMR injection, but still in process for their 2nd MMR as of the report close on November 1. The Covid disruption pushed the report to the end of the school year, which allowed many of those students to receive and document their 2nd injection and moving them from “Out of Compliance” to “Complete”.

The latest year when reports return to the normal rates saw “Out of Compliance” rates climb, and “Complete” rates dropping back to normal, pre-covid disruption levels.

EHB 1638 is unrelated to “Out of Compliance”, and the study omits and ignores “Out of Compliance” rates of 7.3% to 3.8%, (double the exemption rates), during the study period.

How much of the study explores the Covid disruption report timing and the near 40,000 student exodus on vaccination rates? 2 disclaimer sentences.

The truth? When exemptions are restricted or eliminated students leave the schools. When legislators understand this truth, and that nationally the exemption rate is less than 3%, and that less than 2% of toddlers have zero vaccines, (where exactly is the “hesitancy”?), they are very reluctant to support exemption attacks. https://karlkanthak.substack.com/p/school-exemption-advocate-alert