📉 The Extreme Bearish Argument: Will It Happen This Time?

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📺 In this week’s video, Jason Shapiro lays out an extremely bearish argument that anyone can make for the remainder of the year. In the past, Jason has had a similar view but was wrong as he would consider an outlier event. The chances of this bearish scenario happening are low at 1 in 20. So fair warning, and as our disclaimer notes, do not make decisions based on this video, this is for educational purposes only. Jason reviews interest rates, record inflows into bonds, positioning, and the fears associated with the flight to safety into bonds. The government may be out of options that would not increase inflation. Then you have speculators buying the dip in the S&P because they missed this year’s rally. This puts the stock market and the economy in a doomsday scenario where the government is left with one option.

00:01 Introduction
00:14 Setting the Stage for the Bearish Argument
01:48 Cautioning Against Panic and Clickbait
03:01 Mentioning Personal Background and Trading Style
04:12 Discussing Concerns About Bond Market
05:22 Speculating About Market Reactions to a Crash
06:45 Government Debt and Ponzi Scheme Concerns
07:56 Potential Actions by the Federal Reserve
09:19 Government Spending and Default Scenarios
10:34 Speculator Positioning in Bonds
11:43 Speculator Positioning in Stocks
13:14 Speculator Positioning in Gold
14:20 Speculator Positioning in the Yen
15:32 Speculator Positioning in the Swiss Franc
16:45 Discussion of Historical Consequences
17:50 War-Time Scenarios and Implications
19:09 Closing Remarks

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