Vaccine efficacy 'cheap trick' by exclusion

For full context see https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/p/vaccine-efficacy-cheap-trick-by-exclusionShow more

Our main simulated example of the vaccine efficacy ‘cheap trick’ https://youtu.be/Gkh6N-ZL3_k was based on the assumption that those who tested positive for infection within a short period after vaccination (e.g., 7, 14 or 21 days) were classified as unvaccinated.

However, many said that our example was unfair because it was more likely that cases shortly after vaccination would simply be excluded rather than classified as unvaccinated.

This simulation shows that exclusion leads to high efficacy too. And not just for a placebo vaccine but also for a vaccine that has genuine negative efficacy.