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Padres vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds: San Diego Comes Storming Out of All-Star Break
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The first pitch coming out of the MLB All-Star break will happen between a pair of National League teams who entered the season with World Series aspirations but had underwhelming first halves. I am, of course, talking about the San Diego Padres and the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Friars and Phils will open a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Friday night in what should be an intriguing matchup.
San Diego is doing the expected by handing the ball to Yu Darvish, while Philly is manipulating its rotation a bit by going with young southpaw Cristopher Sanchez. So,...
The first pitch coming out of the MLB All-Star break will happen between a pair of National League teams who entered the season with World Series aspirations but had underwhelming first halves. I am, of course, talking about the San Diego Padres and the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Friars and Phils will open a three-game series at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia on Friday night in what should be an intriguing matchup.
San Diego is doing the expected by handing the ball to Yu Darvish, while Philly is manipulating its rotation a bit by going with young southpaw Cristopher Sanchez. So, it’s no surprise the Padres are favorites but is there value with the Phillies as home dogs?
I break down the MLB odds and bring you my best bet, plus a same-game parlay in MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Phillies.
Padres vs Phillies odds Padres vs Phillies predictions
The Phillies haven’t performed the way they would have liked, but at least they are in a wild-card spot. The Padres, on the other hand, might be the most disappointing team in baseball if neither the New York Mets nor St. Louis Cardinals existed.
One of the highest payrolls in baseball, a lineup and pitching staff full of talent, has amounted to just a 43-47 record, but the Padres were able to build some momentum heading into the All-Star break by winning five of their last six games.
Now, they’ll try to carry that over to the second half, and it starts with a good matchup vs. Cristopher Sanchez and the Phillies.
Sanchez has been solid since joining the Phillies rotation in mid-June, pitching to a 2.14 ERA. But not all is as it seems for the left-hander. Those four starts came against the Oakland Athletics, the aforementioned Mets, Washington Nationals, and a slumping Tampa Bay Rays team.
And while the Padres have not done much right in the first half, they did perform decently when facing southpaws, ranking 12th in OPS and 11th in wRC+ in those matchups.
Just like the rest of his team, the first half did not go as planned for Yu Darvish. The right-hander’s 4.87 ERA was his highest since his first year with the Chicago Cubs back in 2018. But at least some of his struggles can reasonably be attributed to bad luck.
Darvish still does a good job of limiting hard contact. His .372 opponent-expected slugging percentage ranks in the 70th percentile in MLB. He is also striking out a solid 25.1% of the batters he faced this season. As a result, his expected ERA is more than a whole run lower at 3.68.
Shockingly, it’s the Phillies' inconsistent bats that have been holding them back. Philly ranks 12th in OPS and 15th in wRC+ against righties while having the 12th-highest K-rate vs. them this season. Those numbers aren’t terrible, but not what you would expect with the lineup they boast.
The edge in starters should make the Padres more than a -115 favorite here. My best bet: Padres (-115 at DraftKings) Padres vs Phillies same-game parlay
Check back for a juicy SGP when markets expand on Friday morning. Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Padres vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Padres opened this National League matchup as high as -125 but...
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