Big Australia Causes Big Issues

Population disaster? Time will tell I suppose, but the most recent Intergenerational Report shows that the number of older Australians are set to soar as younger Australians are having less and less children, resulting in a decreasing number of workers to sustain an ever-ageing population.

In this presentation, we take a look at the 2023 Intergenerational Report released on 24 August, noting that this is the sixth report to be released since its inception in 2002. The report identifies five major risk factors, two of which we’ll be covering in this video – Population ageing, and Rising demand for care and support services, which I think are essentially the same category.

This is the report itself: Australia’s future to 2063. It’s almost 300 pages long, so obviously, I’ll only be going over the more interesting stuff. The Treasurer promises prosperity, opportunity, and a stronger, more sustainable and more inclusive nation. Lies! Well, at least, unprovable speculation.

Although we are currently in surplus, from next year onwards, don’t expect us to ever be in surplus again. Although budget deficits will narrow initially, from the mid-2030s onwards, the deficit will continue to grow and grow as the population ages. This will be the new normal according to this report. As expected, the main spending pressures will be health, aged care, NDIS (Australia’s disability scheme), interest payments, and defence.

Unsurprisingly, the percentage of the economy dedicated to Care (that is, hospitals, aged care, and so on) is set to rapidly increase as Australia’s ageing population woes take hold. Not to mention that Australians are having less babies than are required to maintain the population. A fertility rate of less than 2.1 children per woman, the replacement level fertility rate, results in a population decline (which is obviously offset by immigration here in Australia). Australia has been below this rate for decades. Women are simply having less children.

But why are people having less children? Director of Strategy and Analytics at research and polling firm Redbridge, Kos Samaras, when asked about Australia’s population concerns replied, “The problem we’ve got is people aren’t having enough kids anymore. The long term prognosis is that Australia has an ever-decreasing number of younger workers having to sustain an older population. Currently we have a housing crisis and that is causing problems with birthrates, we are hearing from a lot of people delaying children because of the housing situation … significant mortgage repayments, rental payments. Unless governments find a way to lessen the burden on Millennials and Gen Z, then our economy will get cooked. They are justifiably having less kids.”

You don’t have to look very far to find that housing is a big issue: “Rental vacancy rates falling nationally and tipped to remain at 'extremely low levels'”.

This is the actual population growth between 1982 and 2001. The original Intergenerational Report from 2002 predicted Australia’s population reaching 25.7 million by 2050. This forecast was based on a net overseas migration (NOM) of 90,000 people per year. But what do you think really happened? Australia’s population skyrocketed. Australia hit the 25.7 million population projection from the 2002 IGR 29 years early in 2021 after growing by an unprecedented 6.4 million people over that 20-year period.

So what do you think the current Intergenerational Report predicts in terms of population? I’ll give you a clue. It goes right off the page. Zooming out, we can see that Australia’s population, based on current forecasts, is set to reach 40.5 million people by 2062.

You know what term comes to mind when I think of this looming population catastrophe – Ponzi Scheme. A population Ponzi scheme. Yeah, we’ll just keep increasing the population perpetually. Everything will be A-OK, until it isn’t. Unfortunately, one man’s population dream, can very easily turn into a population disaster!

TREASURY INTERGENERATIONAL REPORTS
https://treasury.gov.au/intergenerational-report

‘ECONOMY WILL GET COOKED’: GEN Z NIGHTMARE AS THE NUMBER OF OLDER AUSTRALIANS SET TO SOAR
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/economy-will-get-cooked-gen-z-nightmare-as-the-number-of-older-australians-set-to-soar/news-story/ff5119df1f156854685634d1c5e834a2

RENTAL VACANCY RATES FALLING NATIONALLY AND TIPPED TO REMAIN AT 'EXTREMELY LOW LEVELS'
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-08-25/rental-market-vacancy-rates-decline-nationally/102776670

‘PONZI SCHEME’: WHY 2023 INTERGENERATIONAL REPORT SETS AUSTRALIA ON PATH TO RUIN
https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/ponzi-scheme-why-2023-intergenerational-report-sets-australia-on-path-to-ruin/news-story/7f574da3e36120e2be85c2ff47fcfc0d

MIGRATION PROGRAM PLANNING LEVELS
https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/what-we-do/migration-program-planning-levels

MUSIC
Allégro by Emmit Fenn