Giants vs Mets Predictions, Picks, Odds: Back Bailey's Bat Sunday Night

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The New York Mets and San Francisco Giants will wrap up a three-game series on Sunday Night Baseball. 
The teams have split the first two games of this series, with Justin Verlander leading New York to a win last night following a San Francisco win the day before.
It's been a significantly disappointing season for the Mets, entering tonight nine games under .500 and well behind the NL East-leading Braves.
Things are different for the Giants; they are just 3.5 games behind first in the NL West and will be angling for a playoff berth down the stretch. 
Read on...

The New York Mets and San Francisco Giants will wrap up a three-game series on Sunday Night Baseball. 
The teams have split the first two games of this series, with Justin Verlander leading New York to a win last night following a San Francisco win the day before.
It's been a significantly disappointing season for the Mets, entering tonight nine games under .500 and well behind the NL East-leading Braves.
Things are different for the Giants; they are just 3.5 games behind first in the NL West and will be angling for a playoff berth down the stretch. 
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Giants on Sunday, July 2nd.
Giants vs Mets odds Giants vs Mets predictions
Tonight we have two pitchers on the mound — each with underwhelming metrics — in David Peterson and Ross Stripling.
With that in mind, I'm naturally attracted to the Over as I'm expecting runs. We'll talk about that soon, but the board has more value, with my best bet leaning on Patrick Bailey. 
Bailey has been a revelation for the San Francisco Giants, especially of late. Two days ago, he became the second catcher to accomplish a rare combo of feats: hitting a game-tying home run in the eighth inning or later and throwing out a potential tying run on a stolen base attempt in the eighth inning or later.
To put it plainly, the first-year major leaguer has been hot. He's gone over this total bases number in six of his last 10 games and exactly half of his previous 30 games. Either way, you slice those numbers, there's value in this from a raw stat perspective with an implied number of -150 if we're looking at the last ten games and +100 in the previous 30.
I'm especially intrigued with this play because of the damage that he's done against lefties, like the one he'll be facing tonight.
It may surprise some, but Patrick Bailey has one of the best ISO numbers against left-handed pitchers of any player in baseball. He's ranked eighth in this category among players with at least 40 plate appearances against lefties with a number of .379. To put it plainly, that number suggests that he'll hit for extra bases around 37% of the time.
With that in mind, we're hoping to see plate appearances against Peterson as many times as possible. My projections suggest that Bailey should be expected to see him close to three times which tilts the odds significantly in our favor. 
Yet another thing that screams value in this play is the pitches that Bailey has success against. Peterson will throw a high mix of fastball-slider, with the two pitches making up just over 50% of his pitch arsenal.
This is good news for Bailey; out of all the pitches he's seen this season, the slider and fastball are the two highest hard-hit rates among them. Over the 40+ times he's seen it, Bailey is hitting .300 against the fastball and .289 against the slider. 
Backing Bailey tonight is backing value. He went 0-4 at the plate last night, which, if trends hold steady, he should bounce back with a good night here. While the data is still relatively small, Bailey has had back-to-back hitless games just once this season.
I projected this number at -130, and given the matchup he'll have, it's one of the best bets on the board under the lights of Sunday Night Baseball.  My best bet: Patrick Bailey Over 1.5 total bases (+155) Giants vs Mets same-game parlay Patrick Bailey Over 1.5 tota...