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Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Marcus Makes Us Money Against Weak Cleveland Offense
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Prop bet #1: Stro' Goes Lo'
Marcus Stroman is coming off his worst performance of the year, when he surrendered eight hits and six runs (three earned) in 3 1/3 innings last Sunday. Despite that ugly outing, Stroman still is third in the majors this year with a 2.47 ERA, while also boasting a 1.08 WHIP and a .203 OBA in 14 starts.
Today, Stroman and the Chicago Cubs are hosting the Cleveland Guardians, who are one of the worst-hitting teams in baseball: Cleveland is 27th with 3.98 runs per game and ranks 26th in OPS (.688).
Stroman is a...
Prop bet #1: Stro' Goes Lo'
Marcus Stroman is coming off his worst performance of the year, when he surrendered eight hits and six runs (three earned) in 3 1/3 innings last Sunday. Despite that ugly outing, Stroman still is third in the majors this year with a 2.47 ERA, while also boasting a 1.08 WHIP and a .203 OBA in 14 starts.
Today, Stroman and the Chicago Cubs are hosting the Cleveland Guardians, who are one of the worst-hitting teams in baseball: Cleveland is 27th with 3.98 runs per game and ranks 26th in OPS (.688).
Stroman is a ground-ball pitcher that ranks in the 94th percentile when it comes to barrel rate (3.5%). That's ideal for a matchup against a Guardians lineup that is dead-last in the majors in both fly-ball rate (22.5%) and barrel rate (4.5%).
The O/U for Stroman's earned runs today is set at 2.5, a number he has gone below in 11 of 14 starts this year. Marcus Stroman prop : Under 2.5 earned runs (-135) Prop bet #2: Mookie makes hay
Mookie Betts has anchored the Dodgers lineup this season and ranks seventh in the majors with 168 total bases. The five-time Silver Slugger winner has been on fire lately and is slashing .317/.398/.673 over the last 30 days.
The Royals will try to cool Betts off today as they send Daniel Lynch to the mound. Lynch had an ugly 5.13 ERA with a 1.57 WHIP in 27 starts last year but has fared better this season. That said, while he has lowered his ERA to 3.96 across six starts, his expected ERA still sits at 4.49 and his expected slugging percentage (.450) is in the bottom 25th percentile. Kansas City also has a brutal bullpen behind him, with their relievers ranking second-last in the majors with a 5.00 ERA and posting a 1.48 WHIP.
Betts mashes against southpaws like Lynch, slugging .609 versus left-handed pitchers last year and upping that number to .671 this season. He also has a history of dominating at Kauffman Stadium, boasting a .740 slugging percentage with nine doubles and eight homers in 23 career games at this venue. Mookie Betts prop : Over 1.5 total bases (-115) Prop bet #3: K's for O
Bailey Ober and the Minnesota Twins are facing off against the Baltimore Orioles at Camden Yards today, and while the O's don't strike out that much (11th in the majors in strikeout rate), they are just 23rd in the majors in chase rate.
The towering Ober has tremendous extension, excellent control, and ranks in the Top 10 percent of all pitchers in chase rate. He put together a solid sophomore season with the Twins last year and has been even better this season, pitching to a 2.97 ERA with a 1.02 WHIP and 66 strikeouts through 69 2/3 innings.
The O/U for Ober's strikeouts total today is set at 4.5 and with the Over available at plus money it seems a bit mispriced: He is coming off an eight-strikeout performance against the Tigers and has fanned at least six batters in eight of his last 11 starts.
With most models projecting Ober to rack up slightly more than 5.5 strikeouts, don't hesitate to play the Over at 4.5. Bailey Ober prop : Over 4.5 strikeouts (+105)
Source: https://www.covers.com/mlb/prop-bet-picks-july-1-2023
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