Twins vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds: Elder Not Exceptional vs Minnesota

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The Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins will continue a three-game series tonight in Atlanta, with the Braves listed as -150 favorites in the MLB odds and a total of 9 on the board.
Minnesota faltered in Game 1 of the set last night in a 4-1 defeat. The loss dropped the Twins to just a .500 record in their previous 10 games. For Atlanta, it was business as usual as they continue to cruise. The win gave the Braves their ninth in the last 10 games, including three in a row. 
Read on for my best bet and full MLB...

The Atlanta Braves and Minnesota Twins will continue a three-game series tonight in Atlanta, with the Braves listed as -150 favorites in the MLB odds and a total of 9 on the board.
Minnesota faltered in Game 1 of the set last night in a 4-1 defeat. The loss dropped the Twins to just a .500 record in their previous 10 games. For Atlanta, it was business as usual as they continue to cruise. The win gave the Braves their ninth in the last 10 games, including three in a row. 
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Twins on Tuesday, June 27.
Twins vs Braves odds Twins vs Braves predictions
It feels like the entirety of the season, the baseball community has been fading Braves pitcher Bryce Elder for expected looming negative regression. For the most part, he's avoided that. I'm giving fading him a go tonight, and one of the best ways to do that is taking his Under 17.5 outs at +100.
Most people reading this likely know the book on Elder by now. He has pretty disappointing metrics, and things like a hard-hit rate near the Bottom 20% of the league stick out like a sore thumb. An expected ERA of 3.77 against an actual one of 2.40 also does. Yet he's able to overcome this. Why? Because of an insane ground ball rate that exceeds 56%, rating him in the genuinely elite category of that metric. But the Twins can win this war, at least enough to where he doesn't go a full six innings.
Minnesota ranks near the bottom of the league in ground ball rate. They have the fifth-lowest ground ball rate in the sport at a clip of 40% and of the highest line drive rates. Elder has been fortunate in that he has yet to see many teams that are good at avoiding the grounder.
He's faced two teams this season who rank in the Bottom 5 in ground ball rate. He met the team who hit the fewest ground balls in the league, the Los Angeles Dodgers. Against them, he allowed one earned run in six innings. That's not precisely a reigning endorsement to taking his Under outs here, but if you look deeper, there's more there. The majority of the hits he gave up had an exit velocity in the triple digits. It could have and should have been much worse, the balls just happened to find the gloves of Braves players on that day.
Elder allowed seven hits in that game — the second-most hits he's allowed in a game this season. The game where he allowed more hits? It came against the Kansas City Royals, who tagged him for eight hits and three earned runs, forcing him to exit midway through the fifth. The Royals are the only other team he's faced this season that ranks in the Bottom 5 of ground ball rate. By any logic, the Twins should be able to put pressure on Elder tonight because of their ability to do the one thing he does exceptionally well.
I'm not here to suggest that Elder gets blown up or even that the Twins win this game (though there is value there). Their ability to get the ball in the air will make this a more stressful outing than the typical one for Elder. Because of that, this number is just too high. My best bet: Elder Under 17.5 outs (+100) Twins vs Braves same-game parlay Elder Under 17.5 outs Elder Over 5.5 hits allowed Ryan to record the first strikeout I want to emphasize that my saying Elder goes Under this number of outs isn't an endorsement of the Twins winning or even Elder getting blown up. It's simply a recognition of him facing a team that does something he hasn't...