Astros vs Dodgers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Brown Gets Knocked Around

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Another Sunday, another great Sunday Night Baseball matchup. This time it will feature the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, who will wrap up a three-game series.
The start of these decorated teams' seasons has been slightly underwhelming. Both are in unfamiliar territory looking above them in the division. Still, the baseball season is young, and both teams are capable of remedying that quickly. Tonight the Astros will be looking to avoid a sweep against this surging Dodgers team which has won the first two games of this series by a single run. 
Read on for my best bet and...

Another Sunday, another great Sunday Night Baseball matchup. This time it will feature the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers, who will wrap up a three-game series.
The start of these decorated teams' seasons has been slightly underwhelming. Both are in unfamiliar territory looking above them in the division. Still, the baseball season is young, and both teams are capable of remedying that quickly. Tonight the Astros will be looking to avoid a sweep against this surging Dodgers team which has won the first two games of this series by a single run. 
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Dodgers on Sunday, June 25.
Astros vs Dodgers odds Astros vs Dodgers predictions
Tonight features an ideal pitching matchup for these Dodgers hitters, and we will target that in the simplest way possible. Our best bet tonight? Hunter Brown, who will take the mound for the Astros, under 17.5 outs.
There are some direct correlations to Brown's worst starts of the season. One of the most direct comparisons to the Dodgers was his start against the Atlanta Braves. In that matchup back in April, he lasted just over three innings and gave up four earned runs.
Brown was stressed from the jump in that game, and something similar could occur today. That's because the Braves and the Dodgers are the only two teams in baseball ranking in the Top 5 of both barrel and hard-hit rates. It shouldn't be a surprise that these are the two areas where Brown struggles, ranking in the Bottom 20% in the league in both metrics. 
There are a few other things that make you think the Dodgers should also limit Brown's length. One of those things is that Brown is a highly ground ball-reliant pitcher with a rate above 55%. The Dodgers don't hit many ground balls; in fact, they hit the fewest in baseball. Because of this, they've had some success against prevalent ground-ball pitchers. This can be repeated today.
The last angle that makes me a fan of this play is where Brown locates his pitches. While he doesn't get a crazy amount of chases, he is the type of pitcher that lives on the edges, with nearly 55% of his pitches being thrown in the shadow part of the plate. That should benefit these Dodgers hitters.
L.A. has a lineup comprised of some of the best eyes in baseball. This is backed up by its chase rate being the second-lowest in baseball, while its swing rate is the lowest in baseball, and its drawing the most walks in the game. I'll be looking for Brown's slightly below-average walk rate to be an issue today and drive up his pitch count. 
Brown has exceeded this number in exactly half of his starts this season, but outside a few early ones, he's rarely shown he can do it against big-time bats. The previous game against the Braves comes to mind, but so do four-inning showings against the Los Angeles Angels and Minnesota Twins. That's why I feel good about fading him tonight. My best bet: Brown Under 17.5 outs (-110) Astros vs Dodgers same-game parlay Brown Under 17.5 outs Both Teams to Score 4+ runs Miguel Vargas Under 0.5 hits We've added our best bet to the same-game parlay tonight and have gotten creative with the other two legs to maximize our payout. 
It should be a similar high-scoring affair that we saw last night. You know why this is a bad matchup for Brown, but it's not an easy one for Tony Gonsolin e...