Does Sports Betting Have an ‘Insider’ Problem?

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It’s déjà vu all over again for NBA Draft-loving users of online sports betting sites.
Yes, stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but last night’s draft was preceded by a market-moving tweet by an NBA insider. The same thing happened in 2022, as ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski (a.k.a. “Woj”) tweeted that it increasingly looked like Jabari Smith would be the pick at first overall, followed by Chet Holmgren, and then Paolo Banchero. Spoiler alert: Banchero went first overall, to the chagrin of bettors who smashed Smith at pricey odds. 
This time around it was Shams Charania of The Athletic...

It’s déjà vu all over again for NBA Draft-loving users of online sports betting sites.
Yes, stop me if you’ve heard this one before, but last night’s draft was preceded by a market-moving tweet by an NBA insider. The same thing happened in 2022, as ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski (a.k.a. “Woj”) tweeted that it increasingly looked like Jabari Smith would be the pick at first overall, followed by Chet Holmgren, and then Paolo Banchero. Spoiler alert: Banchero went first overall, to the chagrin of bettors who smashed Smith at pricey odds. 
This time around it was Shams Charania of The Athletic tweeting Thursday that it looked like Scoot Henderson was "gaining serious momentum" to go second overall, albeit with a caveat that the Charlotte Hornets were "torn" between Henderson and Brandon Miller and that a final decision was pending. Odds on Henderson to go second shortened as steep as -800 (BetMGM said Thursday morning that Scoot had been +350 to go second overall), but Miller was ultimately the pick. 
"All along, the entire Charlotte Hornets organization has been all-in on Brandon Miller -- ownership, front office, scouts, coaches," Woj tweeted Friday night. "They see him as a perennial future All-Star player." Sources: Scoot Henderson is gaining serious momentum at No. 2 with the Charlotte Hornets in tonight’s NBA draft. Hornets have been torn over the last week between Henderson and Brandon Miller. Team has final meetings today to settle on decision.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) June 22, 2023 It's fair to say people lost money betting Scoot as second overall, but there is a twist here, due in part to the expansion and mainstreaming of legal sports betting in the U.S. Woj is technically connected to Caesars Sportsbook and DraftKings via their partnerships with ESPN, but Shams has partnered directly with FanDuel, and he co-hosts a basketball show on FanDuel TV.
The intel from Shams and his ties to FanDuel led to questions being asked after Miller was selected. An insider paid by a bookmaker provided information that may have led punters to place losing bets; what’s up with that? 
“I don't think there is anything nefarious going on but I find it puzzling that a regulated Sportsbook is allowed to take bets on the NBA draft and also employ an ‘insider’ who can tweet nonsense that can move the betting markets,” former Dallas Mavericks executive Haralabos Voulgaris tweeted Friday morning.
Audience first
I’m not suggesting there was any funny business by Shams, FanDuel, or whoever here. While insiders may get a bit more leeway with misfires because they’ve been right enough in the past, are citing sources with a variety of motives, and have hedged accordingly, I think people will ultimately tune out somebody who keeps getting it wrong. Credibility is a currency in journalism; if you don’t trust what I report, why read me at all? And if they’re not reading, you’ve got no audience and nothing to offer a partner like FanDuel. 
But let’s be real here. We live in a world where some people see conspiracies everywhere, are convinced the NFL is rigged, and believe there are leaked “scripts” of sporting events. The mere appearance of any conflict of interest will be enough to set off some folks. Moreover, even a mistake made in good faith can be costly for bettors and earn their ire. You've got to do right and be seen as doing right by player...