Padres vs Giants Predictions, Picks, Odds: San Fran Lineup Will Tag Wacha

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In the upside-down world of the NL West, the San Francisco Giants are heating up as summer officially draws near and making a run at the top of the division.
San Francisco brings a seven-game winning streak into Monday’s series opener with the rival San Diego Padres. The Giants are 11-4 so far in June and lean on reliever-turned-starter Ryan Walker to continue that climb up the standings.
San Diego has struggled with consistency this month and despite a respectable 10-6 record since June 1, the Friars are just shy of one unit of profit on the MLB moneyline odds....

In the upside-down world of the NL West, the San Francisco Giants are heating up as summer officially draws near and making a run at the top of the division.
San Francisco brings a seven-game winning streak into Monday’s series opener with the rival San Diego Padres. The Giants are 11-4 so far in June and lean on reliever-turned-starter Ryan Walker to continue that climb up the standings.
San Diego has struggled with consistency this month and despite a respectable 10-6 record since June 1, the Friars are just shy of one unit of profit on the MLB moneyline odds. Ace Michael Wacha toes the rubber for Monday’s trip to the Bay Area, making San Diego a slim road favorite.
I break down the moneyline and Over/Under total for his NL West war and give my best MLB picks and predictions for Padres at Giants on June 19.
Padres vs Giants odds Padres vs Giants predictions
As great as Michael Wacha has been the past month and a half, we’re looking to sell high on the San Diego Padres’ sizzling starter with some solid return on his earned runs allowed prop Monday night. Caesars is dealing the Over 2.5 earned runs at +123 for Wacha, taking on a San Francisco Giants lineup that has been crushing the ball the past seven games and maintained hot hitting for the month of June.
Today’s player projections range from 2.2 earned runs to 3.01 for Wacha, with the bulk of those forecasts pegged above 2.5 and stronger models sitting on the other side of three earned runs.
Wacha has been sharp as a Father’s Day-fresh Exacto Knife but the bulk of those starts have come at home, where the lanky hurler enjoys a 2.51 ERA and has picked up five of his seven total wins. The other two victories came across five road starts, in which Wacha owns a 3.54 ERA.
San Francisco is a formidable foe, at least at the moment. The Giants just plated 29 total runs in a three-game sweep of the Dodgers in L.A. and sit as the second-best hitting team in the bigs so far in June, scoring close to 6.5 runs per game.
Wacha has taken advantage of some softer opponents in recent starts, facing the likes of Seattle (20th in scoring), Cleveland (27th), and the Chicago Cubs (17th) this month — all of which occurred at home.
Playing the Over 2.5 earned runs isn’t saying Wacha is going to have a bad day, but given the player projections and the Giants’ lineup lighting up the scoreboard, the Over presents solid +EV tonight. My best bet: Michael Wacha Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+123) Padres vs Giants same-game parlay Michael Wacha Over 2.5 earned runs allowed (+115) Luis Matos Over 0.5 hits (-190) Over 8.5 (-120) Wacha hits the road for the first time this month against a San Fran lineup that sits second-best at the plate in June. His projections sit north of 2.5 with some models above three earned runs. We're not asking the sensational 6-foot-6 starter to fall apart, just cough up three or more runs.
Rookie outfield Luis Matos has made a splash in his short time in the show, recording four hits over his first four games for the Giants. His models call for those hits to keep coming — or at least one more — for today’s home game.
If the Giants can get to Wacha early on, there’s a good shot this game goes Over 8.5. San Francisco is handing the ball to a rookie pitcher making his debut as a starter against a Padres lineup top-heavy with intimidating bats. Learn how to bet a same-game p...