Big Flare Players Popping & An Earth-Directed Launch | Solar Storm Forecast 12.20.2021

Save
3 years ago
56

This Space Weather News forecast sponsored in part by Millersville University:
https://www.millersville.edu/swen
Our Sun is popping some big flare potential this week, with no less than seven numbered regions on the Earth-facing disk (up that to nine, as of this afternoon!) Plus more are rotating into Earth view as we speak. This is translating into great radio propagation on Earth's dayside with solar flux back in the triple digits again! Of course with lots of active regions comes radio blackouts, which we are already noticing with one M-class flare earlier today! M-class flare risk tops 20% over the next few days and could very well increase. We even have a small risk for X-class flares as well, mainly from regions 2907 and 2908 so we are keeping a close eye on how things develop. In addition, we also have some solar storms brewing, the first is the fast solar wind hitting Earth now, which has bumped us to storm levels once, and could do so again over the next few days. The next is due to an Earth-directed solar storm that was launched with the M-class flare today. Preliminary analysis indicates this solar storm could hit Earth by December 24! So, while aurora puts on a show at high latitudes now, by the 24th, we could have a decent show down to mid-latitudes as well! Learn the details of all this budding activity, including the fast solar wind, the coming solar storm, and the big flare players, find out when and where aurora might be visible, and see what else our Sun has in store!

Want early access to these forecasts, tutorials on Space Weather, & more? Visit:
https://patreon.com/SpaceweatherWoman

For daily and often hourly updates (during active times) visit me on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/TamithaSkov

For a more in-depth look at the data and images highlighted in this video see these links below.

Solar Imaging and Analysis:
SDO: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/data/
Helioviewer: http://www.helioviewer.org/
Flare Analysis: http://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/
Computer Aided CME Tracking CACTUS: http://www.sidc.oma.be/cactus/out/latestCMEs.html
GOES Xray: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_1m.html
SOHO: http://sohodata.nascom.nasa.gov/
Stereo: http://stereo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
GONG magnetic field synoptic movie: https://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/standard_movie.html
GONG magnetic field synoptic charts: http://gong.nso.edu/data/magmap/
LMSAL Heliophysics Events HEK http://www.lmsal.com/isolsearch

Solar Wind:
DISCOVR solar wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind
ACE Solar Wind: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind
NASA ENLIL SPIRAL: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/IswaSystemWebApp/iSWACygnetStreamer?timestamp=2038-01-23+00%3A44%3A00&window=-1&cygnetId=261
NOAA ENLIL SPIRAL: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

Magnetosphere, Ionosphere, Atmosphere:
GOES Magnetometer: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/goes-magnetometer
Ionosphere D-Region Absorption (DRAP) model: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap/
Auroral Oval Ovation Products: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/aurora-30-minute-forecast
Global 3-hr Kp index: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/planetary-k-index
Wing Kp index prediction: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wing-kp
USGS Ground Magnetometers: http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/
USGS Disturbance Storm-Time (Dst): http://geomag.usgs.gov/realtime/dst/
NAIRAS Radiation Storm Model: http://sol.spacenvironment.net/raps_ops/current_files/globeView.html

Multi-Purpose Space Environment Sites:
NOAA/SWPC: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov
SOLARHAM: http://www.solarham.net/index.htm
Spaceweather: http://spaceweather.com
iSWA: http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/iswa/iSWA.html

Definition of Geomagnetic Storm, Radiation Storm, and Radio Blackout Levels:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/

None of this would be possible without the hard work and dedication of those who have provided all of this data for public use.

Images c/o NASA/ESA/CSA (most notably the superb SDO, SOHO, ACE, STEREO, CCMC, JPL & DSN teams, amazing professionals, hobbyists, institutions, organizations, agencies and amateurs such as those at the USAF/HAARP, NICT, NOAA, USGS, Environment Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Intellicast, Catatania, rice.edu, wisc.edu, sonoma.edu ucalgary.ca, rssi.ru, ohio-state.edu, solen.info, and more. Thanks for making Space Weather part of our every day dialogue.

Loading comments...