Predicting Canada's Population in 2050
I am available to speak for your organization or event. Please contact me via LinkedIn at https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonpadfield/
Also, if you would be interested in taking an online data analytics course with me, please leave a comment in this video or contact me via the link above and if there is enough interest, I will make a course available.
In this video I discuss the art and science of using data to predict the future. We can analyze historic data to identify trends (that is the science part) but we never know how long those trends will endure before something causes them to stop or possibly even reverse (that is the dark art part). I use the example of predicting Canada's population in 2050 in this video which seems simple enough - take the current population + births + immigration - deaths - emigration.
However, in 2019 the United Nations predicted the Canadian death rate through 2100. Within just 3 years (2022) their prediction was off by 20.1% as Canada (like much of the world) has been experiencing double digit "excess deaths" since 2020. The bottom line is, in the words of the late British statistician George Box, "All models are wrong, but some are useful." We have to be careful about putting too much faith in models, because the only thing we know for certain is "all models are wrong" even though "some are useful."
#maids #medicalassistanceindying #canada #dataanalytics #unitednations #birthrate #deathrate
https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CAN/canada/death-rate
https://phys.org/news/2023-07-expert-insight-canada-historic-immigrants.html
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/07/excess-deaths-mortality-coronavirus-covid-19/
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-607-x/71-607-x2021028-eng.htm
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canada-prepares-expand-assisted-death-amid-debate-2022-12-11/
-
4:29
CorrelationResearch
1 year agoAbsurdity of Canadian government's claim that it prevented "1 million deaths"
69.2K8 -
11:49
ClimateDN
1 year agoCanada's 2001 Climate Predictions Revisited
1.1K5 -
9:28
Market Mania
1 year agoCanada's Struggling: Lowest GDP per Capita Since the Great Depression of the 1930s!
3921 -
5:30
MisinformationNation
1 year agoCanada's Covid Deaths
47 -
1:04:44
NationalCitizensInquiryCA
1 year agoExpert Analysis of Covid Death Statistics in BC: Insights from Population Analyst William Munroe | Vancouver Day 1 | NCI
720 -
28:29
Faytene TV - The Issues
1 year ago $0.01 earnedCitizen-Led Inquiry Into Canada’s Pandemic Response with Guest Preston Manning
1431 -
1:09
NarcityCanada
4 years ago11K To 300K People Could Die From COVID-19 According To Canada's New Projections
43.1K -
0:57
Walter Q
8 months agocanada's growing culture divide
1 -
1:00
NarcityCanada
3 years agoCanada's Active COVID-19 Numbers Look Like The Start Of The Pandemic All Over Again
26K1 -
2:23
PsychedelicSocrates
1 year agoExcess deaths in Canada
35