Nationals vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Houston Gives Gore a Problem

Nationals vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Houston Gives Gore a Problem Pleas Subscribe For Daily Sports Betting NewsShow more

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Following last night’s near-collapse, the Hoston Astros will wrap up their three-game set with the Washington Nationals and aim for the sweep as -200 MLB odds home favorites with a total of 8.  
With Jeremy Pena probable to return tonight and Jose Abreu looking better of late, could it be another short outing for the Washington starter who may be pitching above his numbers to begin the year?
Find out where my best bets lie in my Nationals vs. Astros MLB picks and predictions for Thursday, June 15. 
Nationals vs Astros odds Nationals vs Astros predictions
Key numbers are very...

Following last night’s near-collapse, the Hoston Astros will wrap up their three-game set with the Washington Nationals and aim for the sweep as -200 MLB odds home favorites with a total of 8.  
With Jeremy Pena probable to return tonight and Jose Abreu looking better of late, could it be another short outing for the Washington starter who may be pitching above his numbers to begin the year?
Find out where my best bets lie in my Nationals vs. Astros MLB picks and predictions for Thursday, June 15. 
Nationals vs Astros odds Nationals vs Astros predictions
Key numbers are very important in betting, and it holds true in the pitcher outs market. Getting pitchers to come out in the sixth and seventh inning is a very important aspect of handicapping totals, and when pitchers are projecting to go Under 15 outs (and 18 outs), it gives even more value to their Unders, as all outs aren’t linear. 
That’s the case for MacKenzie Gore today. The Nationals starter has an outs market of 16.5, but THE BAT is projecting a solid 14.1 outs on 85 total pitches. That number is giving bettors over 1.5 outs of value plus the value of crossing the key number of 15. 
Gore has given up 16 runs over his last 28 innings (five starts) and has been getting in trouble with the home run — seven over his last five starts and a 16.9% HR/FB ratio. 
On the whole, Gore has pitched above expectations this season but hasn’t consistently gotten deep into games despite a high pitch count. He’s collected 18 outs in fewer than 50% of his 13 starts and now faces an offense that's without Yordan Alvarez, but has Jose Abreu waking from his early-season slumber and will get Jeremy Pena back.
The Astros offense has also fared better vs. left-handed pitching in terms of run production posting a 113 wRC+ vs. lefties this season vs a 95 wRC+ vs. right-handers. 
Even while pitching above expectations, Gore has struggled to get through the sixth inning, and vs. a good offense tonight and possibly regressing to his early-season projections, I understand the bearish projections from THE BAT here.   My best bet: MacKenzie Gore Under 16.5 outs (-115)      Nationals vs Astros same-game parlay Gore Under 16.5 outs Bregman Over 0.5 RBI Javier Over 17.5 outs Gore will struggle to get deep today, which has plagued the left-hander this year despite numbers that have topped his preseason projections. The Houston offense is still producing without Alvarez and is getting some help with the return of Pena and Abreu turning the corner.  Alex Bregman should see multiple at-bats with the chance to cash in a runner, as Altuve is getting on base and stealing bags and the upgrade from Mauricio Dubon to Pena is significant. Javier projects for 18.1 outs, per THE BAT, and gets to carve up one of the worst lineups in baseball. He has recorded 18 outs in five of his last seven starts and might not see his pitch count run high as the Nats don't strike eout much and have quicker at-bats.   Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies. Not intended for use in MA. Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Nationals vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Astros closed as roughly -235 home favorites in both games of the series, yet have moved from -235 to -200 for the finale tonight. ...