Will The Stock Market Crash In 2018/2019? 📉 (Analysis)
An analysis on different important factors used in deciding if the stock market will crash in 2018. We will look at what measurements the best investors use when looking at a market crash. Below are 3 vital measurements to use when looking for a market collapse...
- Measurement 1: Shiller P/E ratio (Used by Ben Graham, Warren Buffet’s mentor). This tells us the types of return we can expect to get in the market based on the current price levels. We can compare this return to the returns on different investments, bonds being the main one.
- Measurement 2: Unemployment rate (Used by Ray Dalio the market timing expert). A low unemployment rate means there is a higher chance of a market crash because the economy can’t be stimulated with increased labour.
- Measurement 3: 10 year treasury minus 2 year treasury (Used by Ray Dalio). The lower the number the higher the chance of a market crash because there will be less money in the economy.
These are 3 very important measurements that I keep track of closely when trying to time the market and when analysing if the market will crash. I hope it was helpful.
Links for data used...
• Unemployment Rate = https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
• 10 year treasury minus 2 year treasury = https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
• Shiller P/E Ratio = https://dqydj.com/shiller-pe-cape-ratio-calculator/
• 10 years treasury yield = https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yieldYear&year=2018
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DISCLAIMER: It's important to note that I am not a financial adviser and you should do your own research when picking stocks to invest in. These are just some of my viewpoints, by no means would I recommend watching one YouTube video and then immediately buying that stock. Do your homework and due diligence before buying! This video was made for educational and entertainment purposes only.
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