Unprecedented CFP Scenario: Predicting the Odd Team Out?

Alright, folks, let's talk College Football Playoff scenarios. Greg McElroy recently analyzed a hypothetical situation that we've never seen before in the sport. If the 5 power 5 conference champs go undefeated… who gets left out?

During an episode of 'Always College Football,' McElroy answered a mailbag question about what the playoff committee would do if all five Power Five conference champions went undefeated. The writer gave the example of Clemson, Georgia, Texas, Michigan, and USC. So, McElroy dove right into it. As I’m sure some of you remember, this happened in the BCS back in 2004, when Auburn was the odd-man out after Oklahoma and USC ran through the Big 12 and Pac 12.

Could you imagine an SEC team being left out in that scenario these days?

Anyway, he pointed out that when considering non-conference matchups, Clemson would have a win over Notre Dame, USC would also have a win over Notre Dame, Michigan would have a win against Ohio State, and Texas would have a win against Alabama. But Georgia, the defending champion, doesn't have a particularly strong non-conference schedule. However, McElroy believes that Georgia's overall resume and eye test would still impress the committee, especially since they’ve won the CFP the last 2 years - even though that, technically, shouldn’t matter.

So in that scenario - 5 teams from different conferences going 13-0 - who gets left out? McElroy ultimately picked Clemson as the team that would miss out. But he made it clear that it's not a knock on the Tigers. It's just a matter of simple math. The SEC and Big Ten champions would very likely have secured their spots, leaving everyone to wonder how the committee would evaluate Clemson, Texas, and USC, along with their respective conferences.

I tend to agree with McElroy.

So why Clemson? According to McElroy, it all boils down to how the committee would compare the ACC, Big 12, and Pac-12 conferences. If all three teams—Clemson, Texas, and USC—are barely scraping by with close wins, it would be difficult to predict their fate. Factors like team performance in the final month, improvement over the season, playoff experience, and more would come into play.

I can understand his reasoning here. That all makes logical sense. But, I’m also a bit of a conspiracy theorist. The CFP is basically run by a group that wants to see the best TV ratings so they can sell it at the highest price. If Georgia and Michigan are automatically in, and it comes down to Texas, USC, and Clemson, which 2 are going to bring in the higher TV ratings? The LA powerhouse, the state school of the 2nd most populated state in the US, or the second-largest university by enrollment in the state of South Carolina? See where I’m going with this? You leave it to chance, you’re not gonna like the results.

Now, let's keep in mind that this is an extremely unlikely scenario and just an offseason hypothetical. It's not real life. McElroy's analysis might shed light on his perception of the current value of the ACC, but that's about it.

So, we'll wait and see how the actual College Football Playoff field shapes up. But man… If this actually happens, can you imagine the drama?

From the full Friday May 5th show: https://youtube.com/live/DSJqYfz4fO8

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