The Threat of Civil Breakdown Is Real

he Manhattan district attorney’s indictment of former President Donald Trump for 34 felonies so far has not resulted in the “death and destruction” that the former president warned of and may have desired. The protests near the courthouse, though loud, were non-violent and essentially performative. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who had encouraged the far-right demonstrators, left the scene after five perfunctory minutes, unable to make herself heard over the din.

We and others have written of the prospect of a new civil war in the United States, which seemed a real, if still remote, possibility immediately after Jan. 6. Now it is starting to look less plausible, given the strength shown by the political center in the 2022 midterms and President Joe Biden’s largely effective tenure in the White House.

The MAGA fever has yet to break for some voters. | Andrew Lichtenstein/Corbis via Getty Images

By STEVEN SIMON and JONATHAN STEVENSON

04/21/2023 04:30 AM EDT

Steven Simon is the Robert E. Wilhelm fellow at the MIT Center for International Studies.

Jonathan Stevenson is a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and managing editor of Survival.