United Nations: India To Overtake China As The World's Most Populous Country - April 24, 2023

Briefing by John Wilmoth, Director, Population Division, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA) and Sarah Hertog, Senior Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, DESA on India overtaking China as the World's most populous country.
The Head of the Population Division of the United Nations said, “India is projected to overtake China as the world's most populous country during the current month, April of 2023.”
Today (24 Apr), John Wilmoth, Director, Population Division, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), and DESA’s Sarah Hertog, Senior Population Affairs Officer, briefed reporters on India overtaking China as the World’s most populous country.
Wilmoth explained, “China's population reached its peak size of 1.4 million in 2022 and has begun to decline.”
He continued, “Projections indicate that the size of the Chinese population could drop below 1 billion before the end of the century. In India, by contrast, the population is expected to continue growing for several decades.”
Sarah Hertog specified, “Our median projection indicates that India's population could stop growing around 2064 and stabilize thereafter.”
She also said that there is some uncertainty around that projection and so “While we, we projected that the population of India will be around 1.5 billion at the end of the century, in the medium variant, the 95 percent uncertainty intervals that we have estimated around that medium projection range from a low of 1 billion to a high as over 2 million.”
John Wilmoth said the main driver of these trends is the fertility level in the two populations.
He continued, “In 2022, China had one of the world's lowest fertility rates, which was 1.2 births per woman on average over a lifetime. India's current fertility rate, which is at 2.0 births per woman, is just below the replacement threshold of 2.1, which is the level required for population stabilization in the long run in the absence of migration.”
He noted, “The crossover reminds us that the number of older persons is growing rapidly. Between 2023 and 2050, the number of persons aged 65 or over is expected to nearly double in China and to more than double in India. These trends call attention to the challenges of providing social support and protection to growing numbers of older persons.”
He concluded, “Now is the time to think for the long term and to promote greater solidarity within societies and between generations. Central to this long-term planning our efforts to combat climate change. It is essential that increasing numbers of people and increasing incomes per capita in China, in India, and throughout the world do not undermine efforts to move towards more sustainable consumption and production. To mitigate the most severe impacts of climate change, all countries must urgently transition away from their current over-dependence on fossil fuel energy.”