Did Nancy Pelosi Bring Us Closer To War?

Jake Werner, Research Fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, joins the program to discuss US/China relations. Nancy Pelosi made a visit to Taiwan that greatly angered the Chinese government and seemingly accomplished nothing.

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What is your read on how the past few years the increase in escalation has affected the Taiwan situation? You know Pelosi visiting there from an American perspective right? Like that seemed like it was not the smartest move. But as that nationalism and repression kind of ramps up, what is happening right now with Taiwan? Yeah I mean it's the deterioration in the relationship between the US and China that has taken Taiwan from being a non-issue something that everyone was willing to kind of tolerate this weird situation the country was in has taken that from being a non-issue to likely issue to starting World War Three that that we have in the world right now. So I think the first thing to say is that we have to understand that Taiwan can't be solved by focusing on Taiwan. the challenge that this issue poses to both the U.S. and China and of course most directly to the people of Taiwan that cannot be solved by focusing on Taiwan. The solution to this problem ultimately lies in finding a solid foundation for the U.S China relationship. so that's the first thing I said. The second thing to say is that it's a difficult issue to kind of understand because I think from the perspective of the people of Taiwan themselves and From the perspective of most Outsiders this is a self-governing country that has been self-governing for decades and decades. The people do not want to unify with China and for the 40 years since the U.S. switched recognition from the government in Taiwan to the Chinese government in Beijing, this hasn't been an issue. so I think it's hard for people to fully appreciate what's driving this. So I don't want to say that I sympathize with China's position on this but it is important to understand that the claim on Taiwan is a Bedrock part of Chinese nationalism. and that the Chinese government for both ideological and practical reasons will not tolerate the possibility of Taiwan becoming permanently separated from the Chinese client line. so that could happen through a formal Declaration of Taiwanese Independence. It could happen through a formalization of the U.S. military relationship with Taiwan. Right now there's an extensive military relationship between the U.S. and Taiwan. But it's all sort of done informally. there are no American bases there. Unlike most of the rest of the world. So the key issue here is doing the Chinese government thinks that Taiwan is on a road to permanent separation or not. and if we can maintain this weird status quo where China makes this claim on Taiwan but Taiwanese Taiwan itself is self-governing and no one else in the region is kind of pushing to change any of this, if we can maintain that weird status quo then things would be okay. but the only way to maintain that status quo is for the two sides to trust that the other side is not trying to undermine the status quo and right now neither side thinks that both sides think the other side is trying to change the status quo. and that's a product of the deterioration in the relationship itself because we no longer trust anything the other side says.