Are Japanese Wage Increases a One-Time Event?
Wages in Japan rose by only 4% between 1990 and 2019 versus 145% in America during that period of time.
Japanese labor unions value job stability more than raises. Due to poor productivity, companies do not want to raise wages. All of these factors have led to low inflation, or deflation.
This year inflation in Japan was over 4%. Japanese are getting increases to their pay. Wages are set when companies and unions meet annually in something called “the spring offensive.” Wage negotiations are leading to the fastest wage growth in three decades.
The Bank of Japan seems content to let inflation and wage growth run a bit longer.
The Japanese labor market is tight.
More women and elderly people are in the labor force now than previously. However, Japan is facing an aging demographic and low birth rates. We will need to wait and see if this is a one time wage growth and inflation blip on the radar, or part of a longer trend.
Warren Buffet seems to be interested in Japanese stocks, specifically something called “trading houses” which are essentially giant conglomerates. This suggests to be a bet on the general Japanese economy.
Works Cited:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Warren-Buffett-says-he-intends-to-add-to-Japanese-stock-holdings2
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/warren-buffett-why-he-bought-5-japanese-trading-houses.html
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/04/13/after-decades-of-stagnation-wages-in-japan-are-finally-rising
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