March 2023 Buyer & Seller Sentiment

In todays show we will take some time to review the latest buyer and seller sentiment data for March 2023. We also take some time to consider what the data says about buyers vs what we are seeing buyers actually do in the marketplace.

We will also talk a bit about thoughts relating to when to buy and what might be good options relating to taking advantage of the market now in anticipation of interest rates dropping sometime in the next year or two when the Fed starts to reduce interest rates to fight recession.

Homebuying Sentiment

For home buyers, sentiment is noted as relatively unchanged. Of course, this is only true if you are looking at the month to month data. However, the bottom line is that 79% of buyers believe it is a bad time to buy. The article referenced in the source below does not give the year over year change, but I have no doubt that the home buying sentiment has taken a nose dive compared to the same time last year.

Home Selling Sentiment

Overall, home owners seem to be in agreement - at least on the national level - that it is a good time to sell. 58% agreed that it is a good time to put their home on the market. However, while this may be true nationally (and I would like to see homes listed in March data to back that up) our local data does not support the conclusion that more home owners are interested in becoming sellers.

In Santa Clara County, we saw a drop of 37% in new listings from the same time last year. In January, we were down 27% from the same time last year. That sure does not seem to indicate an uptick in the number of home owners looking to become sellers.

Even More Dangerous Now

In this weeks show I also spend some time talking about how to time your purchase to take advantage of the current market conditions and to then potentially benefit from a reduction in mortgage rates that will come when the Fed pivots to fight recession rather than inflation. There seems to be little doubt that recession is coming. The only question is how bad that recession might be - and there are plenty of reliable sources out there that suggest we can expect not just a recession but a severe recession and perhaps even a depression.

But Be Careful

After recording todays show, I was taking a deep dive into some content put out by folks like Peter Schiff. He is suggesting that we would be lucky to get off with just a recession. He is talking about a depression being a likely outcome of all the quantitative easing (money printing) and decade of nearly zero interest rates. I have to say, he makes a compelling argument! There is still plenty of room for the real estate market to decline, so while the market as it is today can see some good negotiation room for sellers, that advantage may get even more pronounced as we get further into the year.

SOURCES:
https://www.realtor.com/research/march-2023-hpsi/
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