How To Predict Exactly When a Recession Will Occur | Lance Roberts
The yield curve is a measure of the difference between interest rates on short-term and long-term bonds. An inverted yield curve, when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, is often seen as a sign of an upcoming recession.
Un-inversion of the yield curve, when long-term rates become higher than short-term rates again, is seen as a sign that the recession has started. Currently, the yield curve is un-inverting, which could mean that the recession is starting or that it is not going to occur, despite the previous warning. However, the expert's opinion is that the recession is not going to happen.
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There’s no doubt that it's a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead?
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