How To Predict Exactly When a Recession Will Occur | Lance Roberts

The yield curve is a measure of the difference between interest rates on short-term and long-term bonds. An inverted yield curve, when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, is often seen as a sign of an upcoming recession.
Un-inversion of the yield curve, when long-term rates become higher than short-term rates again, is seen as a sign that the recession has started. Currently, the yield curve is un-inverting, which could mean that the recession is starting or that it is not going to occur, despite the previous warning. However, the expert's opinion is that the recession is not going to happen.

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