PE43: How likely is Balaji's Bitcoin bet, really?

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This is the forty-third video installment from Porkopolis Economics, covering macro and money, from the creator of the Crypto Voices podcast.

Contents
00:00 Intro
00:43 Log scale
02:20 Bitcoin all-time power regression (95% R-squared)
05:57 1-sigma percentile moves
06:30 2-sigma percentile moves
08:30 3-sigma percentile moves
10:36 3-sigma+ percentile to get to Balaji's bet by mid-June
15:20 Likelihood of price moving above Balaji's trendline
18:55 Year end 2011 power trendline comparison (85% R-squared)
22:04 How rare is a 3-4 sigma move in price?

Here we look at Balaji Srinivasan's $1 million price per bitcoin bet within 90 days, made last week. How extraordinary is such a price target?

All-time trend coefficients:
y = a * x ^ b
y = y-intercept * x ^ slope
y = 6.90E-18 * x ^ 588%

Year end 2011 trend coefficients:
y = a * x ^ b
y = y-intercept * x ^ slope
y = 2.52E-28 * x ^ 950%

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Show content is not investment or financial advice in any way.