Very large numbers need vaccinated to prevent one hospital admission
Serious adverse events of special interest following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in randomized trials in adult
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36055877/
Free full text available
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9428332/
3.4. Harm-benefit considerations
In the Moderna trial,
the excess risk of serious AESIs was 15.1 per 10,000 participant
One in 662
(over placebo baselines)
In the Pfizer trial,
the excess risk of serious AESIs 10.1 per 10,000
One in 990
(over placebo baselines)
Combined, mRNA vaccines,
risk of serious adverse events of special interest
12.5 per 10,000 vaccinated
One in 800
(over placebo baselines)
1,250 serious events for each million vaccine recipients
Appendix 1: estimation of number needed to vaccinate to prevent a COVID-19 hospitalisation,
for primary vaccination,
booster vaccination (3rd dose),
autumn 2022 booster and,
spring 2023 booster (for those newly in a risk group)
(Published 25 January 2023)
Calculation of numbers needed to vaccinate (NNV)
Table 3: NNV for prevention of hospitalisation for different programmes
20 – 29 Years, Autumn booster
No risk group, 169,200 (706,500)
In a risk group, 7,500 (59,500)
50 – 59 Years, Autumn booster
No risk group, 43,600 (256,400)
In a risk group, 3,100 (18,600)
60 – 69 years, Autumn booster
3,600 (27,300)
70 + Autumn booster
800 (7,500)
Table 1: rates per million of COVID-19 hospitalisation (rates are for July 2022)
1,250 serious events for each million vaccine recipients
Table 1: rates per million of COVID-19 severe hospitalisation (rates are for July 2022)
1,250 serious events for each million vaccine recipients
Based on a UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) presentation to the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) on 25 October 2022.
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