Webinar | Will China lose if it Invades Taiwan?

Recent War-Games Suggest It Will; What Must be Done Now to Ensure It Does?

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) recently published a report describing the results of 24 war-game simulations modeling various scenarios for an invasion of Taiwan by the Chinese Communist Party’s People’s Liberation Army. Entitled “The First Battle of the Next War: Wargaming a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan,” the findings are both encouraging and potentially dangerous if they encourage an unwarranted sense of complacency on the part of the Taiwanese, American and other allied governments.

As described by the authors, the bottom line is this: “In most scenarios, the United States/Taiwan/Japan defeated a conventional amphibious invasion by China and maintained an autonomous Taiwan. However, this defense came at high cost” for the United States and its allies, for Taiwan and for the People’s Republic of China, prompting the conclusion that: “Victory is therefore not enough. The United States needs to strengthen deterrence immediately.”

This CPDC webinar examines those scenarios, their results, the conclusions drawn from them and what specifically must be done now to “strengthen deterrence.” The panelists include one of the CSIS report’s authors and four other highly regarded national security practitioners with extensive experience in the Pacific theater.

Moderator:

- Frank Gaffney, executive chairman of the Center for Security Policy, host of Securing America with Frank Gaffney on Real America’s Voice Network, and vice-chair for the Committee on the Present Danger: China

Panelists:

- Col. Mark Cancian, U.S. Marine Corps Reserves (Ret.); combat veteran; former Chief of the Force Structure and Investment Division, Office and Management and Budget; former official, Office of the Secretary of Defense; former head of research, Harvard Kennedy School

- Capt. James Fanell, U.S. Navy (Ret.), Former Chief of Intelligence, U.S. Pacific Fleet; Senior Fellow, Geneva Center for Security Policy*

- Col. Grant Newsham, U.S. Marine Corps (Ret.), former Foreign Service Officer, former business executive in East Asia, Senior Fellow, Center for Security Policy*

- Col. John Mills, U.S. Army (Ret.), Former Special Operator; former senior official, Office of the Secretary of Defense and National Security Council; Author, The Nation Will Follow*

- Dr. Bradley Thayer, PhD, Senior Fellow, Center for Security Policy; co-author, Understanding the China Threat *
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*  Denotes Member, Committee on the Present Danger: China