Maybe its a robbery?

Yea im hedging the bets, is it a swarm or a robbery?
Ive closed the door and blocked iff the remaining hole with a rock to limit bee movements in and outa the hive to one in, one out.
Now robbers, if any, have to fight their way in.
It is still a waiting game.

Honey is life for bees. Energy for over winter. A hive needs to protect its food larder if they are to survive. They who control the food supply have the power of survival. Its either this hive or the other one who will survive in the ling run. The bees are playing strategically.

Somewhat like human society who controls food and energy rules over the other.