Labor Are Going to Win, Right?… Right?! (Australian Federal Election Polls 2022)

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has called a federal election for May 21, 2022. Remember, “this election is about you”. Not Joe down the street, not Mary down at the hair salon. This election is about you.

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“It is a choice between a strong economy and a Labor Opposition that would weaken it”, or so it’s said. The opinion polls are pretty telling. On a two-party-preferred basis, the Australian Labor Party are going to win easily, right? Right?! 55% to 45%. A commanding lead! I mean the polls can’t be wrong, can they? More recent polling suggests this blowing out to 57% to 43%. The ALP can’t possible stuff this up, can they? Can they?!

Despite what the media and pollsters might have you believe, there are of course more than two parties in this race. It’s not such a blow out when you look at this chart showing voters intended primary vote. ALP are still leading, at least according to the polls. But as we all know about opinion polling, it’s not an exact science. If it was, then we wouldn’t need elections, would we? We could just do an opinion poll and save the taxpayer a lot of money. No, opinion rolls sometimes get it wrong.

Case in point, the 2019 federal election. Here’s the two-party preferred opinion polling in the lead-up to the 2019 election, giving the ALP a slight lead 51-49. Sure, it wasn’t as commanding at the current polls are showing, but the media were still declaring a victory for the Labor Party. “The Guardian. Essential poll: majority of voters think Bill Shorten will be the winner on Saturday”. But only a few short days later, “Herald Sun. Shorten stands down after loss. After suffering a loss that no-one predicted, Bill Shorten has stood down as Labor leader”.

It’s hard to say exactly why the polls got it wrong, but some are saying that it’s to do with non-response bias, which is thought to be the reason the US polls got it wrong in the lead-up to the November 2016 election. They consistently understated Donald Trump. Trump supporters distrusted the established media, including polls, so much that they did not respond to polls. Just a couple of weeks before the elections, “ABC News. Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead, Boosted by Broad Disapproval of Trump”. But after the November 8th election, “The Guardian. Why were the election polls so wrong? How Donald Trump defied predictions”.

So what do you think? Are Labor in for a sure victory, or can Labor somehow stuff it up again?

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#2022FederalElection #ScottMorrison #AnthonyAlbanese #ScoMo #Albo #AustralianLabor #LiberalAus